亚马逊Q4业绩料“再度炸裂”，分析师目标价看涨近30%

Core Viewpoint - Amazon (AMZN.US) is expected to report strong fourth-quarter earnings, with analysts predicting a high probability of an impressive performance, despite the stock nearing historical highs [3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - Amazon's sales increased from $107 billion in 2025 to over $637 billion in the last 12 months (TTM), while operating income rose from approximately $2.2 billion to about $68.6 billion during the same period [3]. - The company has consistently exceeded earnings per share (EPS) expectations for 11 consecutive quarters, with the most recent quarter showing a 25.3% beat [4]. - For the upcoming fourth quarter, management has set revenue guidance between $206 billion and $213 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth rate of 11.56% [4]. - Analysts have updated their models based on Amazon's conservative guidance, leading to a more optimistic outlook for fourth-quarter earnings [4]. Group 2: Capacity Expansion and Business Structure - Amazon plans to increase its capacity by adding over 1,000 megawatts in the fourth quarter, which is expected to help meet the high demand for AI infrastructure and convert backlog orders into actual revenue [5]. - The shift towards AWS (Amazon Web Services) and existing operational leverage is likely to support higher-than-expected revenue and EPS growth [5]. - The company is expected to invest over $150 billion in capital expenditures for the 2026 fiscal year, the highest among the "Tech Seven" giants [4]. Group 3: Cost Management and Market Position - Amazon's recent decision to cut about 10% of its workforce aims to transition from high-cost labor to AI-driven solutions, potentially increasing profit margins and allowing for reinvestment in AI infrastructure [6]. - Compared to other large-cap stocks, Amazon is considered one of the cheapest, with its forward P/E ratio close to or below the average of its peers [6]. - The company is projected to achieve the highest EPS growth rate among its peers over the next two years [8]. Group 4: Valuation and Target Price - Amazon is expected to trade at a P/E ratio of 28-30 by the end of 2027, supported by its growth advantage over similar-sized competitors [11]. - Consensus EPS estimates for fiscal years 2023 and 2024 are expected to exceed by 6.8% and 7.46%, respectively, with further upward revisions anticipated for fiscal year 2026 [11]. - The target price for Amazon's stock is set at $312.82 per share, representing a 28.7% upside from the current price, based on a 29x P/E ratio [11].