特斯拉，可能得看SpaceX的脸色了

Core Viewpoint - There is speculation that SpaceX will go public in 2026, with potential merger discussions with Tesla or AI company xAI, but the IPO will occur after the merger [5][6]. Group 1: Tesla's Market Performance - Tesla's delivery volume has seen a significant decline, with a projected delivery of 1.636 million vehicles in 2025, down 8.6% from 2024 [8]. - The high-end product sales are particularly concerning, with Model S/X deliveries dropping by 40.3% in 2025 [10]. - Tesla has lost its position as the top seller of pure electric vehicles globally, with BYD achieving 2.26 million units sold in 2025, surpassing Tesla by 37.9% [12]. - The decline in sales and market position is expected to have a profound impact on Tesla's valuation, as automotive sales are fundamental to its business [14]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - Tesla's gross profit from vehicle sales has decreased significantly, with a 45.7% drop in gross profit compared to 2022, despite a 32,200 vehicle increase in deliveries [23]. - The net profit for Tesla is projected to fall to $3.86 billion in 2025, only 25.7% of the 2023 figure [25][27]. - Revenue from carbon credit sales is a significant contributor to net profit, accounting for 51.7% of the 2025 net profit, which is expected to decline further due to new regulations [27][28]. Group 3: FSD Revenue and Future Prospects - The Full Self-Driving (FSD) revenue is minimal, constituting only 1.5% of vehicle sales revenue in 2025, raising concerns about its viability as a revenue stream [36]. - The contribution per vehicle from FSD has peaked, with projections showing a decline in revenue per vehicle sold [39]. - Tesla plans to shift entirely to a subscription model for FSD, which may lower barriers to entry but could also impact revenue stability [41][43]. Group 4: Strategic Considerations - The potential merger of SpaceX with Tesla is seen as a strategy to enhance Tesla's valuation amidst declining core business performance [44][48]. - The current financial struggles and the need for innovative revenue streams highlight the urgency for Tesla to adapt its business model to maintain investor confidence [48].