台积电，还能走多远

Core Viewpoint - TSMC expresses strong confidence in the long-term demand for AI, emphasizing that current capacity constraints are internal rather than external, and is determined to face competition head-on [2][3]. Group 1: Investment and Growth Plans - TSMC plans a capital expenditure of $56 billion for 2026, with 70%-80% allocated to advanced processes and 10%-20% to advanced packaging, significantly exceeding the $100 billion spent over the past three years [4]. - The company expects its revenue to reach $122 billion in 2025, a 36% year-on-year increase, driven by high demand for advanced process technologies [4]. - Advanced process technologies contributed 77% of total wafer revenue, with 3nm, 5nm, and 7nm processes accounting for 28%, 35%, and 14% respectively in Q4 [5]. Group 2: Profitability and Cost Pressures - TSMC's gross margin for 2026 is projected to be influenced by high capacity utilization and improved manufacturing efficiency, but may face a 2%-3% dilution from overseas expansions [7][10]. - The introduction of 2nm technology is expected to begin mass production in late 2026, which may dilute gross margins by approximately 1% [8]. - TSMC's advanced process roadmap includes the rollout of 2nm and enhanced N2P technologies, which are crucial for maintaining its market position [8]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - TSMC remains confident in its ability to maintain its market position despite competition from Intel, which is also advancing its 2nm technology [14][15]. - The upcoming three years (2026-2028) will be critical for both TSMC and Intel as they compete in the advanced process technology space [17]. - TSMC's long-standing focus on foundry services and deep customer relationships provide a significant competitive advantage over Intel, which is still establishing its external foundry capabilities [16][23]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Market Dynamics - TSMC's global expansion strategy, including facilities in the US, Japan, and Germany, aims to mitigate geopolitical risks while addressing local production demands [10][26]. - The semiconductor industry is becoming a focal point of national strategy, with both TSMC and Intel navigating the complexities of local production and supply chain security [26][27]. - The global wafer market is expected to grow significantly from 2023 to 2026, driven by structural demand, marking a super cycle rather than a typical recovery [27].