AI 需求坚挺，微软大跌 12% 实为错杀?

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft (MSFT) is perceived as a potential "safe stock" amid the current AI boom, but its stock recently plummeted nearly 12% following the release of its Q2 FY2026 earnings report, marking the largest single-day drop since the COVID-19 pandemic began [2][3] Group 1: Market Reaction and Performance - The recent drop in Microsoft's stock is seen as an overreaction by the market, driven by emotional responses rather than fundamental changes [6][23] - Despite the stock's decline, Microsoft's fundamentals remain healthy, with a forward P/E ratio of only 25.7, indicating attractive valuation [9][22] - The company's Q2 FY2026 results showed solid performance, with a significant increase in commercial orders, which rose 228% year-over-year, reflecting strong demand [14][23] Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Microsoft’s capital expenditure as a percentage of total revenue rose to 46.1%, higher than analysts' expectations, raising concerns about potential impacts on return on investment [16][19] - The company reported a free cash flow loss of $1.7 billion in Q2 due to aggressive capital spending, which was anticipated by analysts [7][19] - Despite short-term cash flow pressures, analysts believe that once capital expenditure growth normalizes, free cash flow will rebound strongly [19] Group 3: Future Outlook - Microsoft's guidance for Q3 FY2026 indicates a projected revenue growth of 16.7% year-over-year, with Azure cloud services expected to continue growing, albeit at a slightly slower rate [11][21] - The significant backlog of commercial unfulfilled orders, totaling $625 billion with an average weighted duration of 2.5 years, supports a positive revenue outlook [14] - The current market sentiment reflects a reset of expectations, positioning Microsoft as the lowest valued among the seven major tech giants, suggesting a potential buying opportunity [22][24][25]