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Core Insights - Amazon's recent earnings report missed expectations, particularly in e-commerce performance, with declining ROIC and poor cash flow [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, Amazon achieved revenue of $213.4 billion, a year-over-year increase of 12%, with an operating profit of $25 billion impacted by one-time expenses of $2.4 billion [2] - Net profit reached $21.2 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 5.94%, resulting in diluted earnings per share of $1.95, which met basic expectations [2] - Online store revenue was $82.99 billion, up 9.84% year-over-year, while physical store revenue was $5.855 billion, up 4.95% [2] - Third-party seller services generated $52.816 billion, a year-over-year increase of 11.23%, and advertising revenue was $21.317 billion, up 23.31% [2] - Subscription services brought in $13.122 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 14.03% [2] - Cloud business (AWS) revenue reached $35.6 billion, with a growth rate accelerating to 24%, surpassing the consensus estimate of $34.9 billion, and operating profit was $12.5 billion [2] - AWS's annualized revenue run rate is currently $142 billion [2] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - Amazon has delivered over 1.4 million Trainium 2 chips, noted for their rapid scaling and cost-effectiveness, being 30% to 40% more efficient than comparable GPUs [2] - The company plans to invest approximately $200 billion in capital expenditures by mid-2026, primarily directed towards AWS, significantly exceeding the consensus estimate of $146.1 billion [2] - Cash flow for 2024 is projected at $32.878 billion, dropping to $7.695 billion in 2025 [3] Market Context - The market is questioning investment returns in the fourth year of AI, with companies like Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon facing dissatisfaction from capital markets regarding their return on investment [4][5] - There is a concern that if capital expenditures continue to rise, it could negatively impact net profits and cash flow, particularly for cloud companies starting from Q3 2025 [6]