摩根大通预警：黄金等贵金属未来几周将进入盘整期

Core Viewpoint - The one-sided upward trend in precious metals has temporarily come to a halt, entering a consolidation phase despite the underlying long-term bullish trend remaining intact [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Morgan Stanley forecasts that gold will form a wide trading range between support levels of $4264-$4381 and resistance levels of $5100-$5150, potentially lasting for several months [3][4]. - The recent price action of gold shows characteristics of a short-term "explosive" reversal, indicating the arrival of a consolidation phase rather than the end of a long-term rebound [3][6]. - Key technical points to monitor include a mid-term support level around $4500, the 50-day moving average, and the breakout area of $4264-$4381 from Q4 2025 [4][5]. Group 2: Copper Market Insights - Morgan Stanley believes that base metals, particularly copper, will exhibit stronger resilience compared to precious metals, with a first support level expected around 12074-12105 [7]. - The report highlights that copper prices have been partially driven by "currency devaluation capital flows," with implied global manufacturing PMI expectations significantly higher than actual readings [8]. - The long-term bullish trend for copper remains intact as long as prices stay above the critical mid-term support level of 11100-11200 [7][8]. Group 3: Macro Drivers - The long-term bullish logic for commodities is primarily supported by the foreign exchange market, with the dollar index struggling below the key level of 100 for the past eight months [11][12]. - A sustained price level below 100 could lead to a resumption of the downward trend that began in early 2025, which would continue to support the long-term bullish outlook for precious metals and commodities [13].