Microsoft(US:MSFT) 傅里叶的猫·2026-02-07 15:46Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving landscape of AI investments and the implications for major tech companies, highlighting a shift in market evaluation criteria from mere technological advancement to actual revenue contributions and profitability [4] - It emphasizes the transformative impact of AI on traditional software models and the competitive dynamics within the industry, particularly focusing on the challenges faced by companies like Microsoft [11][8] Group 1: AI Investment Trends - Major North American tech companies, including Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft, plan to invest approximately $660 billion in capital expenditures by 2026 [1] - The market's response to aggressive capital spending has changed, with a focus on companies that can demonstrate sustainable profitability from AI investments [4] Group 2: AI Model Development - Claude Code represents a pivotal shift in AI development, moving from passive response models to proactive execution, fundamentally altering human-computer interaction [7] - The widespread adoption of AI agents is expected to disrupt traditional software industries, reducing marginal costs and undermining existing business models [8] Group 3: Storage Industry Dynamics - The storage industry is characterized by cyclical supply-demand mismatches, with significant capital investments required for chip manufacturing leading to low supply elasticity [12] - The current AI-driven storage supercycle is unprecedented, with structural demand surges and supply constraints leading to significant shortages in both HBM and general DRAM [14][15] Group 4: Future Projections - The AI-driven supercycle is anticipated to last until 2027, with ongoing supply shortages and high prices expected to persist in the short term [20] - Long-term changes in the industry may include a shift towards long-term supply contracts with cloud providers, reducing inherent cyclical volatility [21]