高盛：本周美国市场大波动背后，对冲基金“做空一切“、周四软件股开始有买盘、周五“残酷逼空“

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that Friday's short covering only addressed about 20% of the recent short positions backlog, indicating a potential for larger rebounds on Monday unless short sellers double down on their bearish stance [1][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - This week, the U.S. market experienced unprecedented volatility across asset classes, driven by a massive short-selling campaign by hedge funds, which culminated in a brutal short covering on Friday [1][3]. - According to Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage data, hedge funds recorded the highest single-day short selling of U.S. stocks since 2016, with a short-to-long ratio reaching 2.5 to 1 [3][4]. - The short-selling wave affected not only the stock market but also precious metals and cryptocurrencies, leading to significant declines in gold, silver, and Bitcoin [3]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The information technology sector was the worst performer, with short selling reaching the second-largest scale in the past five years, and a short-to-long ratio of 5.4 to 1 [5]. - The software industry was particularly hard hit, accounting for 75% of the net selling in the information technology sector, while semiconductor and IT services saw net buying [6]. - Eight out of eleven sectors experienced net selling, with the largest dollar-denominated declines in information technology, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, industrials, and real estate [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Recovery Signals - A key turning point in market sentiment occurred on Thursday, with institutional investors beginning to buy into the IGV (software sector ETF), which saw a 12% increase on Wednesday, marking the largest single-day increase of 2023 [7]. - Following this, Friday's market saw a significant short covering rally, with Goldman Sachs' most shorted stock basket surging 8.8%, the second-largest single-day increase since 2022 [8][9]. - Despite the rally, Goldman Sachs cautions that only about 20% of the short positions were covered, suggesting that further short covering could continue [9].