热点思考 | 日债“豪赌”：选举后“高市财政”的约束——“大财政”系列之四（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Japanese House of Representatives election on February 8 will significantly impact Japan's political landscape and debt risk, with a continued focus on expansionary fiscal policy but a more cautious approach to avoid a "Truss moment" [2][8]. Group 1: Election Dynamics - The election features three main factions: the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party, the Center-Left Reform Alliance, and other opposition parties [2][3]. - The LDP, led by Prime Minister Kishi, is predicted to maintain a majority, with a 99% probability of Kishi continuing as Prime Minister and an 81% chance of the LDP securing over 250 seats [2][3][13]. - Three potential outcomes exist: a significant LDP win reducing the need for fiscal stimulus, a marginal increase in LDP seats leading to moderate debt risk, or a decline in LDP seats raising policy uncertainty and fiscal cliff risks [3][19][20]. Group 2: Post-Election Macro Policy - Post-election, Japan's macro policy will remain expansionary, but if the LDP gains a larger advantage, the pace of policy implementation may be more cautious [4][24]. - A key commitment is to lower the food tax rate, with a proposal to suspend it for two years, although this may be moderated post-election to alleviate market concerns [4][26]. - The LDP plans to enhance critical mineral reserve systems and establish a Japanese version of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to scrutinize foreign investments [4][32]. Group 3: Debt Risk Assessment - Japan's sovereign debt risk is relatively low, with a projected debt-to-GDP ratio of 230% by 2025 and interest payments constituting 1.49% of GDP in 2024 [5][37]. - A potential suspension of the food tax could create a 5 trillion yen deficit annually, impacting new bond issuance [5][37]. - Japan's status as a net creditor, with a net international investment position of 84% of GDP, and a low foreign ownership of government bonds (14%) contribute to its lower debt risk perception [5][43][44].