中金：“防风险”会成为利率下行的限制么？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of risk prevention measures on banks' ability to hold long-term government bonds, emphasizing that while there may be short-term disruptions, the long-term outlook remains stable as macroeconomic stability is prioritized [1][3]. Regulatory Indicators - The economic value change relative to tier 1 capital (ΔEVE) is a key regulatory indicator, with some banks already reaching the regulatory threshold. In 2024, four major state-owned banks and two joint-stock banks are projected to have ΔEVE exceeding 10%, with three state-owned banks nearing 15% [3][6]. - International experiences indicate that risk prevention does not necessitate rigid adherence to regulatory thresholds. For instance, Japan has adjusted its ΔEVE thresholds for smaller banks, allowing for a more flexible approach [6][12]. International Comparisons - The U.S. has recently relaxed regulatory requirements on supplementary leverage ratios to enhance large banks' market-making capabilities for U.S. Treasury securities. The SLR for global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) was reduced from 5-6% to 3.5-4.5% [12][13]. - Unlike Japan and the Eurozone, the U.S. has minimal regulation on banks' interest rate risk, allowing banks to set their own ΔEVE thresholds without a strict 15% limit [12][13]. Macroeconomic Stability - Ensuring macroeconomic stability is deemed the most fundamental risk prevention measure. The article suggests that fiscal and monetary policies should be flexible to adapt to economic cycles, with a focus on maintaining adequate liquidity [1][14]. - Current economic conditions in China indicate a need for fiscal expansion to stabilize overall demand, as private sector leverage and local debt levels remain high [14][20]. Potential Adjustments in Regulation - There is room for adjustment in ΔEVE regulatory requirements, particularly in the assumptions used for interest rate shocks. The article suggests that China's parallel interest rate shock could be around 200 basis points, indicating potential flexibility in regulatory thresholds [17][20]. - The People's Bank of China has significant room for balance sheet expansion, with total assets at approximately 48.2 trillion yuan, which is 34.4% of GDP, indicating a potential for increased liquidity support for government bond issuance [20][22].