谁真正控制着芯片供应？

Core Insights - Semiconductor manufacturing equipment is the most constrained link in the chip supply chain, determining the capacity ramp-up and process node scaling of wafer fabs [2] - The delivery cycle for advanced equipment can take months, leading to wafer shortages and increased chip prices during any disruptions [2] - Despite the recovery of equipment supply since the 2020-2022 period, demand remains strong, driven by AI servers, HBM, and increased capital expenditures from foundries and IDMs [6] Group 1 - The global equipment investment is projected to reach approximately $130 billion by 2025, with China being the largest investor despite U.S. export controls [6] - The supply chain faces several challenges, including the complexity of equipment components sourced from a few suppliers, which creates structural bottlenecks [9] - The long certification cycles for alternative suppliers exacerbate supply disruptions, as wafer fabs require proven performance before switching suppliers [9] Group 2 - Geopolitical factors are reshaping market dynamics, with U.S. export restrictions altering order flows and prompting China to accelerate domestic equipment development [9] - Global logistics and material trade remain fragile, with reliance on specialized inputs that often require international integration [10] - The demand for on-site support and spare parts is increasing, which can limit service capabilities in certain regions [10] Group 3 - Yole Group anticipates three major transformations in the semiconductor equipment ecosystem, focusing on regionalization and collaboration with subsystem suppliers [11] - The diversification of technology will shift the location of bottlenecks, as advanced packaging and heterogeneous integration create new equipment demands [12] - Key players in the semiconductor equipment market include ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research, and Tokyo Electron, with emerging Chinese OEMs like Naura and AMEC gaining traction [12]