Broadcom(US:AVGO) 美股IPO·2026-02-11 13:03Core Viewpoint - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating and a target price of $475 for Broadcom (AVGO.US), highlighting a significant increase in demand for Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) as developers of large language models accelerate their custom ASIC development [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Broadcom, established in 1961 and headquartered in San Jose, USA, operates in various sectors including data center networking, communications, and smartphones [3]. - The explosive growth of the TPU business not only solidifies Broadcom's position in the semiconductor industry but also opens a new growth cycle in the AI era, marking it as a key indicator of hardware innovation in the global tech sector [3]. Group 2: Market Demand and Supply Chain Insights - UBS's report indicates that as developers of large language models expedite their custom ASIC plans, many manufacturers are increasingly viewing TPUs as a transitional alternative to GPUs, leading to a notable rise in demand [3]. - Following supply chain analysis, UBS predicts that Broadcom will ship over 5 million TPUs by 2027, up from approximately 3.7 million in 2026, with the majority of 2027 shipments being the v7 model [3]. Group 3: Financial Projections - For the fiscal year 2026, Broadcom's AI business revenue is projected to be around $60 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of approximately 200%, and is expected to grow to about $106 billion in 2027, an 80% increase [4]. - The revenue from customized computing business is anticipated to reach $30 billion from Google this year, increasing to $56 billion by 2027 [4]. Group 4: Technical Advantages of TPU - TPUs exhibit significant technical advantages over GPUs, particularly in terms of token processing efficiency and cost per token, driven by the rapid development of the Mixture of Experts (MoE) model [5]. - The architecture of TPUs, which includes hardware matrix multipliers and sparsity computing engines, greatly reduces data read/write interactions in memory, enhancing cost efficiency in dense and sparse model inference scenarios [5]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Core TPU customers like Anthropic and Meta have a distinct advantage over traditional cloud service clients, as they can fully control their software stack, reducing reliance on NVIDIA's unified computing architecture (CUDA) [6]. - UBS assesses that the collaboration between Google and MediaTek on customer-owned tools (COT) will have a limited negative impact on Broadcom, as Broadcom's SerDes technology remains a critical component of Google's supply chain [6]. Group 6: Valuation and Financial Metrics - UBS employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, assigning an EV/FCF multiple of 25x for infrastructure software and 30x for semiconductor business, suggesting a target price of $560 under optimistic scenarios [7]. - The report revises Broadcom's financial forecasts upward, projecting revenues of $105.8 billion, $155.5 billion, and $200.2 billion for fiscal years 2026 to 2028, with respective year-over-year growth rates of 65.6%, 47.0%, and 28.7% [7].