Tesla(US:TSLA) 美股IPO·2026-02-11 23:46Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that Tesla's plan to build 100GW of vertically integrated solar manufacturing capacity is not merely a simple entry into the ground solar market, but rather a strategic move aimed at energy supply chain security under geopolitical pressures and long-term goals related to Musk's space data centers, while also deeply integrating with Tesla's existing energy storage business [1][3]. Group 1: Strategic Rationale - The solar capacity expansion is supported by two core logical frameworks: the need for energy supply chain autonomy due to geopolitical factors and the demand for space data centers, indicating a long-term energy and space strategy rather than short-term market expansion [4]. - Over 75% of global solar manufacturing capacity is concentrated in China and Southeast Asia, with the U.S. supply chain showing significant structural imbalances, which Tesla aims to address through vertical integration [4][6]. - The majority of Tesla's planned solar capacity will be directed towards space solar data centers, with only a small portion intended to supplement the U.S. ground utility solar market, aligning with Musk's broader space strategy [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The construction of 100GW solar capacity will require substantial capital expenditure, estimated between $150 billion to $700 billion depending on the level of vertical integration achieved [9][10]. - Tesla's solar business is projected to generate significant revenue and profit potential, with an estimated annual revenue of $25 billion by 2030 at full capacity, surpassing its energy storage business revenue [11]. - The U.S. manufacturing tax credit policy is expected to provide substantial financial benefits, potentially yielding $17.25 billion annually if full vertical integration is achieved [12]. Group 3: Technological Direction - Tesla is likely to abandon traditional crystalline silicon technology in favor of developing solar technology suited for space environments, which presents a significant technological differentiation from existing market players [13][14]. - The specific technological roadmap for Tesla's solar capacity has not yet been disclosed, and its development will be crucial for the success of the solar capacity construction and application [14]. Group 4: Valuation Impact - Tesla's solar strategy is expected to enhance the valuation of its energy business by 35%, contributing an estimated $25 billion to $50 billion in equity value, translating to an increase of $6 to $14 per share [15][16]. - The solar business is positioned as a critical growth driver within Tesla's overall valuation framework, which includes various business segments [17]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Tesla has begun site selection for solar manufacturing facilities, and further details on capacity construction are anticipated in upcoming quarterly earnings calls [18]. - Key future focus areas include the announcement of the solar technology roadmap, progress on space data centers, the synergy between solar and energy storage businesses, and the implementation of tax credit policies, all of which are vital for realizing the value of Tesla's solar business [18].