数据点评 | “强复苏”还是“弱平衡”？——2026年1月美国就业数据点评（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Overview - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for January added 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding market expectations of 65,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3% from 4.4% [1][5] - Private sector hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3% [1][5] - The labor force participation rate rose to 62.5%, slightly above the expected 62.4% [1][5] Employment Data Analysis - The January employment data shows signs of improvement, particularly in the education and health sectors, which contributed significantly to job growth due to adjustments in the NBD model [2][23] - The construction sector also saw job gains, with 33,000 new jobs added, primarily driven by non-residential contractors rather than residential construction [2][23] - The unemployment rate's decline and the increase in labor participation, especially among the 25-54 age group, indicate a rising willingness to work among U.S. residents [2] Future Outlook - Despite the positive January employment figures, there are concerns about potential "water" in the data, suggesting that the employment market remains in a "weak balance" [3] - Short-term risks include tariff impacts and immigration policies that could negatively affect employment [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current stance in the first half of the year, with attention on upcoming CPI data to gauge inflationary pressures [3] Market Reactions - Following the release of the employment data, U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar index, and stock markets all experienced upward movements, indicating reduced concerns over layoffs [12][18] - The 10-year Treasury yield briefly surpassed 4.2%, reflecting market optimism [12] - Gold prices fell in response to the employment data, aligning with lowered expectations for interest rate cuts [12][21] Data Revisions - The annual benchmark revision indicates that the average monthly job addition for 2025 is now projected at only 15,000, marking the weakest performance since 2003, excluding economic crisis years [9] - The revisions included a downward adjustment of 898,000 jobs for seasonally adjusted non-farm employment for March 2025 [9] Sector Contributions - The education and health services sector added 137,000 jobs, while the construction sector contributed 33,000 jobs, indicating sector-specific growth drivers [23] - Manufacturing managed to add 5,000 jobs in January, breaking a streak of negative growth over the previous 13 months [23]