Applovin(US:APP) 美股IPO·2026-02-13 04:53Core Viewpoint - Despite delivering better-than-expected Q4 results and guidance, AppLovin (APP.US) saw a decline of 19.68% in its stock price due to market concerns over the crowded AI space and increased competition from Meta (META.US), Google (GOOGL.US), and CloudX in in-game advertising. However, most analysts remain optimistic, believing that growth drivers such as e-commerce self-service platforms are yet to be fully realized [1]. Group 1: Analyst Insights - Morgan Stanley's analyst Matthew Cost's team noted that Meta's Audience Network has been a long-term bidding partner for AppLovin's advertising supply side, and the incremental bidding for IDFA traffic is not a new variable [3]. - AppLovin believes the current competitive landscape is vastly different from five years ago when Meta dominated, with improved advertising effectiveness and closed-loop data advantages creating a competitive moat. Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating, lowering the target price from $800 to $720, focusing on e-commerce business ramp-up in the first half of 2026 and the rollout of web self-service tools [4]. - Jefferies also maintains a "Buy" rating, reducing the target price from $860 to $700, citing that gaming stocks are being sold off due to indiscriminate pricing of AI risks. Analyst James Heaney's team mentioned that the self-service general advertising tool is on track for release in the first half of this year, but AppLovin is cautiously advancing its e-commerce scaling rather than rushing to launch [5]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - AppLovin's CEO Adam Foroughi addressed competition during the earnings call, stating that despite the emergence of new competitors in the MAX bidding system, such as Unity (U.US) and Liftoff, AppLovin's market position remains strong. He attributed this to the company's large scale and expertise, as well as its superior model for assessing the true value of ad exposure [5]. - Competitor Unity continued its downward trend, falling 26% on Wednesday and an additional 8.2% on Thursday [6].