Microsoft(US:MSFT) 硬AI·2026-02-13 13:25Core Viewpoint - Microsoft AI's chief executive warns that a majority of white-collar jobs may be automated within the next 12 to 18 months, a timeline that is significantly earlier than the expectations of the business community and policymakers [1][4]. Group 1: AI Impact on Employment - The report from Challenger indicates that in January 2023, 7,624 job losses were attributed to AI, accounting for 7% of total layoffs that month. By 2025, the total number of layoffs linked to AI is projected to reach 54,836 [1][4]. - Since the beginning of 2023, a total of 79,449 planned layoffs have been attributed to AI [1]. Group 2: Training AI with Human Labor - The startup Mercor has employed thousands of white-collar contractors, including professionals from fields such as medicine, law, finance, and engineering, to train AI systems that may eventually replace them. These contractors earn between $45 to $250 per hour [5]. - This model highlights the short-term demand for "data labeling and feedback labor" in the AI industry, while also raising concerns about long-term job stability and salary structures [5]. Group 3: Diverging Opinions on AI's Timeline - Not all analysts agree with the rapid timeline for job replacement. Morgan Stanley suggests that the impact of AI may take longer to manifest in economic data, with significant disruptions potentially occurring in the late 2020s or beyond [7]. Group 4: AI Risks Identified by Industry Leaders - Anthropic's CEO, Dario Amodei, outlines six major risks associated with AI, including large-scale unemployment, the potential for AI to possess state-level power, and the rise of terrorism threats due to advancements in biology [9]. - He expresses concern that AI could empower authoritarian regimes and highlights the risks posed by AI companies themselves, which control significant data and influence over users [9][10].