影响万亿资本的市场叙事争夺：一边是“AI颠覆一切”，一边是“AI回报不够”

Core Viewpoint - The current global market is experiencing a rare period of "high noise and high velocity," making it difficult for even seasoned traders to navigate [2] - The core anxiety in the market stems from two opposing narratives regarding AI, leading to significant volatility and risk transfer [3][8] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 index has stalled around the 7000-point mark this year, indicating underlying tensions despite a seemingly calm surface [3] - Goldman Sachs' "AI leaders vs. laggards" trade saw its largest single-day gain recently, primarily driven by short-selling of "laggards" [3] - There is a notable shift in global capital allocation, with increasing funds flowing into non-U.S. markets as the U.S. market narrative becomes more complex [5] Group 2: Regional Market Performance - The South Korean KOSPI index has doubled since the end of 2024, recently achieving its best weekly performance in five years, driven by corporate value enhancement plans and strong earnings expectations [6] - The MSCI Korea index has risen 28% year-to-date in USD terms, with Goldman Sachs raising its KOSPI target to 6400 points based on impressive earnings growth and attractive valuations [12] - Japan's Nikkei index has recently increased by 5%, indicating a shift in market dynamics where a stronger yen and lower interest rates are not hindering stock market performance [16] Group 3: Investment Strategies - The current market environment is characterized by contradictory signals, making investment decisions particularly challenging [6] - There is a rare phenomenon of simultaneous buying of cyclical assets and defensive assets, indicating uncertainty in market sentiment [6] - Hedge funds have shown remarkable resilience, with macro discretionary funds accumulating significant profit buffers, suggesting a favorable environment for active management strategies [14]