Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 华尔街见闻·2026-02-21 00:25Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that while the economic cycle is still early, some market valuations are too high, predicting high volatility in AI and tech stocks, with funds continuing to flow into "cheap" cyclical assets [1][2]. Economic Data and Market Performance - Economic data remains strong, supporting the performance of cyclical assets, with the US ISM index rising and labor market stabilizing [3]. - Globally, developed market manufacturing PMI reached its highest level in a year, and emerging market manufacturing PMI also increased month-on-month [4]. - Goldman Sachs indicates that the market is underestimating the growth outlook for the US economy, which is projected to grow at 2.5% for the year, suggesting room for upward adjustments in cyclical expectations [5]. Sector Rotation and Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to embrace cyclical assets benefiting from economic recovery while being cautious of overvalued AI and large tech stocks [2]. - Emerging market stocks, the Australian dollar, copper, and capital goods and materials sectors in the US have seen significant gains, while previously leading AI and tech themes have experienced volatility [2]. - The market is shifting from expensive tech stocks to cheaper exposures, particularly in underperforming sectors, leading to "value" outperforming "growth" [6]. AI Sector Dynamics - The AI sector is facing increased volatility, with Goldman Sachs acknowledging the real productivity gains from AI but noting that the market has overvalued these benefits, particularly for companies directly involved in the AI boom [6][9]. - Concerns are rising regarding cash flow consumption by large cloud service providers and potential disruptions to software providers and certain financial/real estate sectors [8]. Currency and Global Market Trends - The US dollar has weakened due to tariff concerns and worries about the independence of the Federal Reserve, with the relative underperformance of US stocks compared to Europe and Japan prompting discussions on diversification and hedging [12]. - Currencies that align with global cyclical views, such as the Australian dollar, South African rand, Chilean peso, and Brazilian real, have become the biggest gainers against the US dollar [13]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Goldman Sachs suggests continuing to bet on cyclical assets while selecting those with relatively cheap valuations, as there is still room for upward adjustments in growth expectations [15]. - The combination of ongoing volatility in AI themes and the potential for periodic spillover into index-level volatility supports a diversified equity portfolio and healthy non-US exposure, including emerging markets [16].