特朗普没有“速战速决”！全球市场直面“伊朗冲击”，焦点是“持续时间”（附投资策略）

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the shipping decline in the Strait of Hormuz is due to traders' proactive risk avoidance rather than a physical blockade, and a surge in oil prices seems inevitable [1][4][6] - Goldman Sachs warns that if the conflict evolves into a prolonged situation similar to 2022, high fiscal spending combined with energy inflation will force the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates amid declining growth [1][10] - The current macroeconomic environment bears striking similarities to the early stages of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, raising concerns about persistent inflation and its impact on monetary policy [8][10][19] Group 2 - The shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz has significantly decreased, but some oil tankers continue to pass safely, indicating that the situation is more about market-induced pauses rather than an outright closure [5][6] - Goldman Sachs highlights that the duration of the conflict will determine asset pricing, with a focus on the potential for a "sustained disruption" in oil supply rather than a temporary spike [8][11] - The report suggests that if the market perceives a higher probability of prolonged conflict, volatility may increase, impacting trading strategies and leading to higher interest rate fluctuations [17][19] Group 3 - In terms of asset classes, Goldman Sachs predicts that cyclical sectors, particularly consumer-facing industries and industrial oil consumers, may face pressure, while energy producers could perform relatively better [15][16] - The report indicates that in the foreign exchange market, the US dollar and Japanese yen may become preferred safe-haven assets amid rising oil prices and negative supply shocks [16] - The analysis also points out that a 10% increase in oil prices typically raises the 2-year breakeven inflation rate by 15-20 basis points, while the impact on nominal rates is smaller [16]