比最乐观还乐观：英伟达把AI泡沫论按在地上摩擦

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that NVIDIA's recent Q4 FY2026 earnings report exceeded even the most optimistic expectations, indicating a strong demand for AI computing power and challenging the narrative of a peak in AI investment [1][3]. Financial Performance - NVIDIA reported a quarterly revenue of $681 billion, with data center revenue accounting for $623 billion and a gross margin returning to over 75% [3]. - The guidance for Q1 is set at a median of $780 billion, surpassing the most aggressive models by 4% [3]. - Year-over-year growth in data center revenue reached 75%, defying traditional semiconductor industry expectations of slowing growth due to high base effects [5]. Demand Dynamics - The demand for AI computing is not stagnating but accelerating, driven by a shift from one-time training to ongoing inference and "agent-based applications" [6]. - The underlying logic of demand is changing, with AI computing becoming a necessity for business operations rather than just experimental purchases [6]. - The potential long-term market for chips is now viewed as exceeding $500 billion, with demand expanding beyond major tech companies to include sovereign AI and vertical industry applications [7]. Market Characteristics - The increase in gross margin indicates that supply-side efficiency improvements have not diminished pricing power, suggesting that demand growth is outpacing supply expansion [8]. - The current market is characterized by a significant supply-demand imbalance, with NVIDIA's offerings evolving from mere chips to comprehensive platforms that enhance customer stickiness [8][9]. - The focus of the market has shifted from competition to delivery certainty, as customers prioritize reliable supply over alternative options [9]. Structural Risks - While the earnings report suggests a delay in concerns about a peak in AI investment, risks remain due to the concentration of AI computing capital expenditures among a few large cloud providers [11]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with companies viewing computing power as a strategic asset rather than a cost, leading to a "arms race" among major players [11]. Valuation Perspective - NVIDIA is transitioning from a cyclical hardware supplier to a foundational infrastructure operator in the digital economy, which may enhance its resilience against economic cycles [12]. - The valuation logic for NVIDIA is shifting towards that of infrastructure giants, characterized by stable cash flows and monopolistic pricing power, rather than traditional semiconductor frameworks [12]. Conclusion - The article concludes that the recent earnings report has postponed the AI bubble narrative, providing the market with a valuable opportunity to validate application-level developments before potential risks materialize [14].