Nvidia(US:NVDA) 傅里叶的猫·2026-02-23 15:21Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of Nvidia's upcoming Q4 earnings report, which is expected to provide insights into the company's future performance and revenue guidance, particularly for 2027 [2][3][4]. Group 1: Q4 Earnings Expectations - Both Goldman Sachs and UBS maintain a bullish outlook on Nvidia, predicting that Q4 revenue will exceed market expectations, with Goldman forecasting an additional $2 billion in revenue and UBS estimating revenue of approximately $67.5 billion, exceeding the company's guidance by about $2.5 billion [3]. - The market is more focused on Nvidia's management outlook for future revenue rather than just the Q4 results, as the growth expectations for 2026 have already been largely priced in [4]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Production Capacity - Goldman Sachs anticipates multiple catalysts for Nvidia in the first half of 2026, while UBS has raised its expectations for TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging capacity, predicting an increase from 110,000 to 120,000 units by the end of 2026 [5]. - UBS forecasts Nvidia's GPU production to reach 6.9 million units in 2025 and 9.5 million units in 2026, up from previous estimates of 5.7 million and 9.3 million units, indicating additional inventory for Nvidia in 2026 [5]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape remains a focal point, particularly with the impact of cloud vendors developing their own ASIC chips. Goldman Sachs expects increased competition from Google's TPU v7 and AMD's MI455X, while UBS remains optimistic about Nvidia's ability to maintain its 75% gross margin guidance [6]. - Nvidia is likely to emphasize the competitive advantages of its CUDA ecosystem and will focus on recent collaborations, such as with Groq, and their implications for inference costs [6]. Group 4: Demand Trends from Non-Cloud Customers - There is growing confidence in demand from non-traditional customers like OpenAI and Anthropic, with OpenAI expected to accelerate computing power deployment through partnerships with Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD by the second half of 2026 [10]. - Anthropic has recently raised its revenue expectations for 2026 by 20%, and various national AI projects are progressing well, indicating a robust overall AI ecosystem [10]. Group 5: Uncertainty in the Chinese Market - Both Goldman Sachs and UBS acknowledge the uncertainty surrounding Nvidia's contributions from the Chinese market. Despite reports of Nvidia's H200 chip approval, more details are needed regarding potential revenue contributions from China by 2027 [11]. - UBS suggests that as China accelerates the adoption of domestic GPUs, the market recovery prospects remain uncertain, estimating that the Chinese market could bring Nvidia several billion dollars in additional revenue, although it is unlikely that Nvidia will include this market in its earnings guidance [11].