最多只能撑25天？摩根大通警告：霍尔木兹海峡若封锁，存储限制或导致中东原油全面停产

Core Viewpoint - The escalating situation in the Middle East poses the most severe supply disruption risk to the global energy market in decades, with potential physical supply interruptions if the Strait of Hormuz is completely blocked [2][4]. Group 1: Supply Disruption Risks - Morgan Stanley's analysis indicates that if the Strait of Hormuz is fully blocked, the combined land and sea storage capacity of Middle Eastern oil-producing countries can only sustain about 25 days of production before being forced to halt operations [2][5]. - The current oil export volume through the Strait has drastically decreased to approximately 4 million barrels, primarily consisting of Iranian oil, which is only a quarter of the normal daily export volume [4]. Group 2: Market Impact and Price Dynamics - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have resulted in a significant risk premium in oil prices, with estimates indicating that Brent crude prices currently include a risk premium of $9 to $10 per barrel related to the situation with Iran [7]. - U.S. retail gasoline prices have risen from $2.83 per gallon in January to $2.94, indicating upward pressure on energy prices, despite being approximately 6.7% lower than a year ago [8]. Group 3: Demand and Consumption Trends - In the first two months of this year, global average daily oil consumption increased by about 1.4 million barrels year-on-year, nearly double Morgan Stanley's previous expectations, indicating strong demand amidst supply chain disruptions [9].