中金 | 巴西外卖：格局生变，潜力待发

Core Insights - The Brazilian food delivery market is expected to be dominated by iFood until 2025, with the entry of Chinese companies Didi and Meituan into the market generating significant attention [1] - The article analyzes Brazil's demographic and geographic patterns, economic conditions, food delivery market development, and industry competition dynamics [1] Market Overview - Brazil has a population of approximately 213 million, ranking 7th globally, with a GDP of $2.19 trillion expected in 2024, accounting for 31% of Latin America's GDP [4][6] - The food delivery market in Brazil is projected to grow from $18.7 billion in 2024 (penetration rate of 18.7%) to $33.3 billion by 2028 (penetration rate of 28.5%), with a CAGR of 15% [4][14] - iFood currently holds a dominant position in the market, benefiting from early entry advantages, exclusive merchant agreements, and strong local operations [4][18] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is evolving with the entry of Didi's 99Food and Meituan's Keeta in 2025, both adopting differentiated strategies to penetrate the market [5][19] - iFood has established a strong market presence, capturing over 80% of the market share, while Uber Eats exited the market in 2022 due to competitive pressures [19][22] - The regulatory environment is tightening, with antitrust measures limiting iFood's exclusive agreements, creating opportunities for new entrants [5][30] Payment and Consumer Behavior - Brazil's payment landscape is characterized by a high adoption of Pix, which has surpassed cash transactions, accounting for 17% of all payment transactions in 2023 [12][11] - The culture of installment payments is prevalent, with credit card transactions growing by 14.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [12][14] Growth Potential - The food delivery market in Brazil has significant room for growth, with a current penetration rate lower than that of China and the U.S. [14][17] - The expected increase in market size and daily order volume indicates a robust growth trajectory, with daily orders projected to rise from 4.51 million in 2024 to 8.84 million by 2028 [14][17] Strategic Initiatives - iFood is leveraging its established network and capital support to enhance its service offerings and maintain its competitive edge [22][25] - Didi's 99Food aims to utilize its existing transportation network to create a cost-effective delivery system, while focusing on the middle and lower-income segments [40][49] - The integration of delivery and ride-hailing services is expected to enhance operational efficiency and customer acquisition for 99Food [46][49]