中金2026年展望 | 轻工零售美妆：把握情绪消费主线，布局底部反转及新技术催化

Core Viewpoint - The narrative logic of the light industry retail beauty sector is shifting from "expansion" to "quality improvement" by 2026, driven by consumer demand for emotional and functional value, supply upgrades, and supportive consumption policies [1] Demand Trends - Four major demand trends in the light industry retail beauty sector are identified: sustained emotional consumption, coexistence of rational and high-end consumption recovery, dominance of functional demand, and continued preference for domestic brands, influenced by demographic changes and generational shifts [4] - The rise of Generation Z is leading to a "self-pleasure" consumption transformation, with this demographic contributing 22.5% of total consumption despite only representing 23.3% of the population [12][14] - Interest consumption is characterized by high frequency, high stickiness, and low price sensitivity, with 47% of consumers regularly paying for interests [14] Supply Innovations - Three types of supply innovations are observed: creating new categories (e.g.,潮玩), developing new functionalities (e.g., PDRN in beauty products), and integrating new technologies (e.g., AI glasses) [4][22] - The潮玩 industry exemplifies the creation of new categories, fulfilling emotional and interest needs of adult consumers, with significant revenue growth reported by leading companies [22][24] - New functionalities in products, such as PDRN, are gaining popularity, with substantial increases in search volume and sales during promotional events [27][31] Policy Support - Current consumption support policies aim to establish a systematic long-term mechanism, focusing on enhancing consumer quality and optimizing service products [4][32] - Policies are designed to stimulate demand through mechanisms like "old-for-new" exchanges and to guide industries towards intelligent and functional upgrades [32][33] Investment Strategy - Investment should focus on three main lines: long-term positioning in emotional and functional consumption sectors, actively seeking opportunities catalyzed by new technologies, and identifying companies poised for fundamental recovery supported by stimulus policies [37][38] Industry Outlook - The beauty and medical aesthetics sector is expected to see growth driven by supply-side innovations, with domestic brands likely to continue gaining market share [5][40] - The潮玩 retail sector is projected to maintain high global demand, with leading companies innovating in product categories and IP operations [5][40] - The light manufacturing sector is anticipated to experience a weak recovery in demand, with structural opportunities for export-oriented companies [5][40] Consumer Behavior - A "K-shaped" consumption differentiation is emerging, with rational consumption increasing sensitivity to prices while high-end consumption shows signs of recovery [15][47] - The demand for functional products is becoming a dominant factor in purchasing decisions, with consumers increasingly valuing product quality and service over marketing [17][19] Market Dynamics - The retail market is experiencing a mild recovery, with service consumption growing faster than goods retail, driven by policy support and improved service supply [6][58] - The competition among brands is intensifying, leading to a decline in gross sales margins and a concentration of market share among leading brands [50][56]