高盛“逆市看涨”的逻辑：霍尔木兹海峡将在5天后恢复流通，两周内恢复70%，四周后恢复100%

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs remains bullish on the market despite recent volatility, viewing the current market pullback as a buying opportunity rather than the onset of a long-term bear market, driven by optimism regarding the restoration of flow around the Strait of Hormuz [2] Group 1: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs' optimistic outlook is largely based on expectations for a rapid recovery of the energy supply chain [3] - The firm anticipates that oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz will remain at extremely low levels for the next five days, then recover to 70% of normal capacity within two weeks, and reach full normalization in four weeks [4] Group 2: Oil Supply and Storage - The report outlines a specific timeline for the recovery of oil flow through the Strait, predicting that exports will remain at approximately 15% of normal levels for an additional five days before gradually increasing [4] - Middle Eastern oil-producing countries are facing significant storage pressures, with available onshore storage estimated at around 600 million barrels, while idle capacity before the disruption was just over 300 million barrels [4] Group 3: Price Forecast Adjustments - Goldman Sachs has raised its average price forecast for Brent crude oil in Q2 by $10 to $76 per barrel and for WTI crude by $9 to $71 per barrel, citing the impact of disrupted exports on OECD commercial inventories and geopolitical uncertainties [6] - Long-term price adjustments are more limited, with Goldman raising its Q4 2026 Brent crude forecast from $60 to $66 and its 2027 forecast from $65 to $70, anticipating a return to oversupply conditions as disruptions fade [7] Group 4: Risks and Volatility - Current price forecasts carry significant upside risks, with Brent crude potentially reaching $100 if flow through the Strait remains low for an additional five weeks [7] - Conversely, there are notable downside risks if diplomatic efforts lead to a quicker-than-expected restoration of flow, which could result in a sharp decline in prices by $12 to $15 [7]