Costco(US:COST) 美股研究社·2026-03-06 12:39Core Viewpoint - In today's retail landscape, the ultimate competition is not about customer acquisition costs but about deepening user lifetime value. Costco demonstrates that the strongest moat in business is trust, and the most stable profit source comes from member relationships rather than price differences [2][4]. Financial Performance - In Q2 of FY2026, Costco reported a revenue of $69.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, with same-store sales growth of 7.4%. Notably, membership fee income reached $1.36 billion, highlighting its role as a key component of the business model and a stabilizing factor during economic cycles [4][7]. Membership Fee Structure - Costco's membership fee income grew nearly 9%, closely matching sales growth, indicating a strong lock-in of profit structure through membership fees, which are highly resistant to economic cycles. The company maintains a strict markup limit of 14% on products, contrasting with traditional retailers that have higher margins [7][9]. Unique Financial Structure - Costco's financial structure is characterized by low product profitability, with some items sold at a loss after operational costs. Membership fees contribute significantly to net profits, with a global renewal rate nearing 90%, and almost 93% in North America, providing a stable cash flow akin to annuity income [9][10]. Membership Economics in China - Chinese e-commerce giants like JD.com and Alibaba have attempted membership systems, but these have not become core profit sources. Instead, they serve as marketing tools to enhance user engagement. The fundamental difference lies in the nature of membership: Costco's membership is an entry cost, while Chinese memberships are often tied to discounts and subsidies [11][12]. Supply Chain as a Competitive Advantage - The true challenge in replicating Costco's model lies not in the membership system but in the supply chain structure that supports low prices. Costco's limited SKU count (around 4,000) allows for extreme purchasing scale and strong bargaining power with suppliers, leading to lower prices for consumers [16][18]. Market Valuation - Costco enjoys a significant valuation premium in the U.S. retail sector, with a price-to-earnings ratio consistently higher than that of Walmart and Target. This is attributed to its subscription revenue model, which provides stable cash flow, strong user retention, and high barriers to entry due to supply chain efficiency [22][25]. Future Investment Considerations - The key question for investors is identifying which company in China can emulate Costco's model. This requires a long-term strategic focus, a willingness to sacrifice short-term GMV growth for supply chain excellence, and the establishment of brand trust rather than relying solely on traffic [26][27].