Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 美股IPO·2026-03-07 16:03Core Viewpoint - The oil price is at risk of exceeding $100 per barrel next week if there are no signs of recovery in the Strait of Hormuz flow within this week, and if the low flow continues throughout March, prices could surpass historical peaks from 2008 and 2022 [1][3]. Group 1: Reasons for Increased Oil Price Risk - Reason 1: The flow in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped significantly, with current daily flow down approximately 90% from normal levels, equating to a reduction of about 18 million barrels per day [4][5][6]. - Reason 2: The ability to redirect oil through alternative pipelines is severely limited, with actual redirection only increasing by about 0.9 million barrels per day, far below the theoretical capacity of 3.6 million barrels per day [7][8]. - Reason 3: Shipping companies are in a "wait-and-see" mode due to high physical risks in the Strait, indicating that the core issue is safety rather than economic costs [9][10]. Group 2: Supply Shock and Demand Destruction - Reason 4: The scale of the supply shock is unprecedented, with total supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf reaching 17.1 million barrels per day, which is 17 times the decline seen during the peak of Russian production cuts in April 2022 [12][13]. - The market is expected to price in "demand destruction" more rapidly than historical precedents due to the unprecedented scale of the shock and accelerated inventory consumption [13][14]. Group 3: Revision of Previous Optimistic Predictions - Goldman Sachs has revised its previous optimistic predictions, which were based on the assumption of a quick recovery in the Strait's flow, indicating that if no signs of normalization appear soon, oil price forecasts will be adjusted upwards [15][16]. - The actual flow is currently around 10% of normal levels, significantly lower than the previously assumed 15%, and the potential for rapid solutions is not guaranteed [16][17].