此轮周期里，股价先反转？还是猪价先反转？

Core Viewpoint - The pork industry is crucial for ensuring stable protein intake for residents, and it is essential to have leading companies with low and controllable breeding costs, high-quality pigs, and strong epidemic prevention measures to maintain micro-profitability and reduce cyclical attributes [3]. Group 1: Industry Insights - The average PSY and MSY indicators have risen over the past decade, reflecting advancements in breeding technology, with shorter slaughter cycles and improved survival rates [3]. - As the country progresses towards a moderately prosperous society, per capita protein intake is expected to increase, indicating that investing in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors aligns with national development [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - In February, data from Muyuan Foods indicated that while slaughtering was profitable, pig farming was not due to high feed costs, suggesting that pig prices may not rise until the third quarter, depending on the number of breeding sows [4]. - Historical trends show that stock prices and pig prices do not always move in sync, and market sentiment can create opportunities for buying or selling when there is a divergence in expectations about the pig cycle [4]. - The market often reflects emotions rather than intrinsic value, and when pessimism prevails about the pig cycle, it may signal a potential turning point for the cycle [4].