海外高频 | 美国非农就业走弱，油价飞速上涨（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant decline in U.S. non-farm employment, with a reduction of 92,000 jobs in February, leading to an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.4% [88] - The U.S. retail sales experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.2% in January, marking the first negative growth since October of the previous year, primarily driven by decreases in automotive, gas station, electronics, and clothing sales [93] - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI for February reached 56.1, indicating strong expansion in the service sector, while the manufacturing PMI stood at 52.4, suggesting steady growth in manufacturing activity [90] Group 2 - The article notes a sharp increase in oil prices, with Brent crude rising by 27.9% to $92.7 per barrel, and WTI crude increasing by 35.6% to $90.9 per barrel [46] - The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased to $847 billion as of March 4, 2026, indicating a significant drop compared to early February [64] - The cumulative fiscal deficit for the U.S. in 2026 reached $393.3 billion by February 28, down from $491 billion in the same period last year, with total expenditures at $1.513 trillion [70]