SWHY(SZ:000166) 申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部·2026-03-10 02:08Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent economic trends in the U.S., highlighting a decline in non-farm employment and a significant rise in oil prices, alongside various market reactions and fiscal data [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm employment decreased by 92,000 in February, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, which is significantly below expectations [4][89]. - The ISM manufacturing PMI for February was reported at 52.4, indicating steady growth in manufacturing activity, while the ISM non-manufacturing PMI reached 56.1, the highest since July 2022, suggesting strong service sector performance [4][91]. - Retail sales in January fell by 0.2%, marking the first negative growth since October of the previous year, primarily due to declines in automotive, gas station, electronics, and clothing sales [4][94]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index fell by 2.0% during the week, with most sectors, including materials and consumer staples, experiencing declines [3][5]. - Brent crude oil prices surged by 27.9% to $92.7 per barrel, while WTI crude oil prices increased by 35.6% to $90.9 per barrel, reflecting heightened geopolitical tensions [3][47]. - The U.S. dollar index rose by 1.3% to 98.96, while the offshore RMB depreciated to 6.90 against the dollar [3][31]. Group 3: Fiscal Data - As of February 28, 2026, the cumulative fiscal deficit for the U.S. was $393.3 billion, down from $491.0 billion in the same period last year, with total expenditures at $1.5131 trillion [4][71]. - The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased to $847 billion, indicating a reduction in liquidity [4][65]. Group 4: Bond Market - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose by 18 basis points to 4.15%, reflecting increased borrowing costs [4][19]. - Emerging market 10-year bond yields also increased, with Turkey's yield rising by 307.5 basis points to 31.28% [4][25].