Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations, while concerns shifted from potential rate cuts to the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, on monetary policy [1][2]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Meeting Outcomes - The FOMC meeting concluded without altering the interest rate, maintaining the forecast of one rate cut for the year, despite rising inflation expectations due to increased oil prices [2][3]. - Powell indicated that inflation is not decreasing as smoothly as previously anticipated, and the uncertainty surrounding the Iran situation complicates the economic outlook [2][9]. Economic Projections - The FOMC adjusted its economic forecasts, raising the PCE inflation estimate for 2026 from 2.4% to 2.7% and the GDP growth rate from 2.3% to 2.4%, while keeping the unemployment rate steady at 4.4% [3][9]. - The market's interpretation of the meeting was cautious, with the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rising, while gold and U.S. equities fell [2]. Geopolitical Impact - The ongoing Iran situation is a significant factor influencing future monetary policy, with Powell expressing uncertainty about its potential impact on inflation and economic growth [9][10]. - The market's expectations for rate cuts have been pushed back, with CME futures indicating a delay until June 2027 for the next rate cut [2][15]. Investment Implications - The bond market appears to be pricing in a more pessimistic outlook compared to equities, with the S&P 500 reflecting a potential for 1.1 rate cuts in the next year, while the bond market anticipates only 0.1 [15][16]. - The current gap between actual and natural interest rates suggests the need for 2-3 rate cuts to align with economic conditions, particularly if inflation pressures persist due to high oil prices [9][11].
中金：美联储还能再降息吗？