海外高频 | 油价延续上涨，美联储降息预期大幅下降（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - Since the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East at the end of February, crude oil prices have continued to rise, raising concerns about stagflation. The March FOMC meeting took a hawkish stance, triggering tightening trades, and the market began to speculate on the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates within the year. The Fed's hawkish policy stance aligns with expectations, but "not lowering rates" may be the "bottom line," with subsequent attention on the "negative feedback" from tightening financial conditions [2][106]. Group 1: Major Assets & Overseas Events & Data - Oil prices continued to rise, while gold and silver prices fell sharply. The S&P 500 index dropped by 1.9%, the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield rose by 11 basis points, and the dollar index fell to 99.51. Brent crude oil prices increased by 8.8% to $112.2 per barrel, while COMEX gold prices fell by 8.9% to $4576.3 per ounce, and COMEX silver prices dropped by 12.7% to $69.5 per ounce [3][105]. - The issuance scale of U.S. Treasury bonds increased, while the fiscal deficit was lower than the same period last year. As of March 18, the U.S. TGA balance decreased to $875.8 billion, down from mid-February 2026, and the rolling net issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds rose to $14.572 billion [48][105]. - The March FOMC meeting maintained a hawkish tone, with February's PPI in the U.S. exceeding market expectations, driven mainly by food and energy [62][105]. Group 2: U.S. Treasury and Fiscal Data - As of March 18, the U.S. TGA balance decreased to $875.8 billion, showing a significant decline compared to mid-February 2026. The net issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds for the week rose to $14.572 billion [43][105]. - The cumulative fiscal deficit for the U.S. as of March 17 was $462.9 billion, lower than the $512.0 billion recorded in the same period last year. Cumulative expenditures reached $1842.3 billion, compared to $1766.1 billion last year [48][105]. Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - The market has significantly revised down its expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Following the March FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained rates but signaled a hawkish outlook, leading to a rapid adjustment in market expectations regarding rate cuts [62][105]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in 2026 increased from 0% a month ago to 12% as of March 20, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards potential tightening [102][105]. Group 4: European Central Bank and Inflation - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep interest rates unchanged, aligning with market expectations, while significantly raising inflation forecasts due to the impact of the Middle East conflict on energy prices [66][67]. - The ECB's baseline forecast for 2026 GDP growth was revised down to 0.9%, while HICP inflation and core HICP inflation were raised to 2.6% and 2.2%, respectively [66][69].