再度上调油价预期！高盛最新评估：高油价将持续更长时间，两种情况下油价将创历史新高！

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has extended the duration of the "only 5%" flow through the Strait of Hormuz from 3 weeks to 6 weeks, leading to a higher structural safety premium, resulting in an increase in Brent crude oil price forecasts to $110 for March-April and $85 for 2026 [1][3][10] Group 1: Price Forecast Adjustments - Brent crude oil prices are expected to average $110 in March-April, up from a previous forecast of $98, marking a 62% increase compared to the 2025 annual average [3][10] - The average price for Brent crude oil in 2026 has been raised to $85, while the 2027 average remains at a high of $80 [3][10] Group 2: Supply Disruption Assumptions - The assumption of a 6-week disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is based on the expectation that flow will only be at 5% of normal levels, compared to a previous assumption of 10% for 3 weeks [5][6] - Analysts highlight three theoretical paths for the recovery of flow: allowing some vessels to pass safely, de-escalation of conflict, and military escort [6] Group 3: Structural Safety Premium - The report emphasizes a structural safety premium due to the concentration of production and spare capacity, which may lead to higher strategic reserves and long-term price increases [7][10] - The definition of spare capacity is provided as production that can be brought online within 30 days and sustained for at least 90 days [7] Group 4: Extreme Scenarios for Oil Prices - Goldman Sachs evaluates two extreme scenarios where if the disruption lasts for 10 weeks, oil prices could exceed the historical record of $147 [8][9] - In a "severe adverse scenario," if there is a sustained loss of 2 million barrels per day in Middle Eastern production, Brent prices could spike significantly before settling at $115 in Q4 2026 and $100 in Q4 2027 [9] Group 5: Long-Term High Oil Prices - Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil prices are not expected to return to pre-conflict levels quickly, with Goldman Sachs projecting a 2026 Brent average of $85 per barrel [10][11] - The report indicates a significant oil supply shock, with an estimated shortfall of 17.6 million barrels per day in Gulf oil exports [10][11] Group 6: Strategic Reserve Rebuilding - Policymakers are expected to rebuild higher strategic reserve levels after the Strait reopens, creating long-term additional demand [12] - The market is anticipated to incorporate a safety premium of approximately $4 into forward prices due to the recognition of energy infrastructure vulnerabilities [13]