Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 华尔街见闻·2026-03-23 03:46Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in oil prices due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with Goldman Sachs raising its oil price forecasts for the next two years and warning of potential record highs under extreme scenarios [1][9]. Price Forecast Adjustments - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its Brent crude oil price forecast for March-April to an average of $110 per barrel, up from a previous estimate of $98, representing a 62% increase compared to the 2025 annual average [1][9]. - The forecast for 2026 has been raised to $85 per barrel, while the 2027 average remains at a high of $80 [1]. Supply Disruption Assumptions - The report assumes that the flow through the Strait of Hormuz will be maintained at only 5% of normal levels for up to 6 weeks, followed by a slow recovery period of one month [4]. - The analysis highlights three potential paths for the recovery of flow: allowing some ships to pass, de-escalation of conflict, or military escort [4]. Structural Safety Premium - The report emphasizes a structural safety premium due to the concentration of production and spare capacity, which may lead to higher strategic reserves and long-term price increases [5][6]. - The definition of spare capacity is provided as production that can be brought online within 30 days and sustained for at least 90 days [6]. Extreme Scenarios for Oil Prices - Goldman Sachs evaluates two extreme scenarios where oil prices could exceed the historical record of $147 per barrel if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz extend to 10 weeks [7][8]. - In a "severe adverse scenario," if there is a sustained loss of 2 million barrels per day in Middle Eastern production, Brent prices could spike significantly before settling at $115 in Q4 2026 and $100 in Q4 2027 [8]. Long-Term High Oil Prices - Even if the Strait reopens, oil prices are not expected to return to pre-conflict levels quickly, with Goldman Sachs raising the 2026 Brent average price forecast to $85 per barrel [9][10]. - The estimated shortfall in Gulf oil exports currently stands at 17.6 million barrels per day, indicating a significant supply shock [10]. Strategic Reserve Rebuilding - Policymakers are expected to rebuild higher strategic reserve levels after the Strait reopens, creating additional long-term demand [11]. - The market is anticipated to incorporate a safety premium of approximately $4 into forward prices due to the recognition of energy infrastructure vulnerabilities [12].