摩根大通警告：全球石油供应缺口或持续在千万桶/日，政策工具很难跟上

Core Viewpoint - The global oil supply gap has reached 16 million barrels per day, expected to remain around 10 million barrels per day in April, significantly exceeding any historical supply disruption events [1][8] Group 1: Supply Gap and Uncertainties - The modeling of unprecedented events like the Iran conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed traditional analytical frameworks to their limits, with no historical precedent for the scale and complexity of this disruption [2] - The greatest uncertainty lies in the duration of the conflict, with mixed signals from the U.S. and Israel regarding its length, while Iran appears to believe time is on its side [2] - Even if hostilities cease, normal navigation through the Strait of Hormuz may not resume immediately, highlighting the structural impact of the disruption [2] Group 2: Regional Impact and Inventory - Southeast Asia is particularly vulnerable due to its heavy reliance on imports and limited domestic refining capacity, leading to a significant shortfall in crude and refined oil [3] - Countries like Indonesia, Thailand, and Sri Lanka may need to draw heavily on commercial product inventories, estimated at 129 million barrels, potentially contributing about 1 million barrels per day in supply relief over the coming months [3] Group 3: Floating Storage and Sanctions - Iran holds approximately 38 million barrels of floating oil and refined products, while Russia has about 17 million barrels, together potentially releasing around 500,000 barrels per day to the market [4] - However, the formal lifting of sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil may have limited marginal impact on actual supply, as these products have been flowing through alternative channels [5] - The significant aspect of lifting sanctions could be that it allows large state-owned refineries in India to engage in procurement more confidently, replacing more cautious private buyers [7] Group 4: Price Mechanisms and Demand Destruction - The only remaining adjustment mechanism in this context is rising prices, which are leading to demand destruction across various sectors [9] - The chemical, aviation, and agricultural industries are facing significant pressure due to supply constraints, with refineries reducing operating rates and product output declining sharply [10] - The impact of the blockade is particularly concentrated on naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and jet fuel, with about 5% of global ethylene capacity in Japan and South Korea already shut down [11][13] - The aviation sector is under pressure as jet fuel costs typically account for over 20% of operating expenses, leading airlines to cut routes, especially in Africa and Europe [14]