SWHY(SZ:000166) 赵伟宏观探索·2026-03-29 16:04Group 1 - Oil prices continue to rise, while gold and silver prices decline. Brent crude oil increased by 0.3% to $112.6 per barrel, COMEX gold fell by 1.8% to $4,492.0 per ounce, and COMEX silver dropped by 2.8% to $67.6 per ounce [1][47][54] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 2.1%, with most sectors experiencing declines. Communication services, information technology, and financials fell by 7.2%, 3.5%, and 2.1% respectively, while energy, materials, and utilities rose by 6.2%, 4.2%, and 2.9% [2][9] - Emerging market indices showed mixed results, with the South Korean Composite Index down by 5.9% and the Istanbul Stock Exchange down by 2.6% [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased to $837.4 billion as of March 25, 2026, with net issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds falling to $5.16 billion [65][71] - The cumulative fiscal deficit for the U.S. in 2026 reached $516 billion, lower than the $553.6 billion recorded in the same period last year. Total expenditures were $1,923.5 billion, compared to $1,835.6 billion last year [71][72] - The market anticipates a 72.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged, a significant increase from the previous week's 64% [101][106] Group 3 - Japan's CPI for February showed a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, down from 1.5% previously, with core inflation (excluding food and energy) rising to 1.7% [110][113] - The U.S. jobless claims remained stable, with initial claims at 210,000, aligning with market expectations, and continuing claims at 1.819 million, lower than the anticipated 1.848 million [116][119]