【申万宏源策略 | 一周回顾展望】再谈中国资本市场稳定性

Core Viewpoint - The market's pricing of medium-term stagflation is insufficient, with both China and the US not adopting a tightening monetary policy as a baseline assumption. There are potential upward signals for A-shares that have not been fully priced in, particularly in the context of energy security and supply chain safety [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current market narrative revolves around the impact of the US-Iran conflict, leading to rising oil prices and inflation expectations, which in turn raises concerns about stagflation. However, the market's pricing of these concerns is seen as overly optimistic [3][4]. - A-shares are currently in a neutral pricing state, with both upward and downward risks not fully priced in. The short-term outlook is not stable, but it is also not in a state of extreme pessimism [2][4]. Group 2: Energy and Supply Chain Security - The upward trend in energy prices and the potential for the new energy and electric vehicle sectors to drive mid-term growth are highlighted. China's energy security and supply chain safety are expected to create new fundamental trends, particularly as some export chains can effectively pass on rising costs [4][5]. - The market's health remains intact, with a stable capital market supported by policies aimed at maintaining stability. The A-share market is still in a long-term upward cycle, with the potential for a second phase of growth following a period of adjustment [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The current phase is characterized as a "first phase" adjustment after an initial rise, with a "second phase" of growth anticipated. Historical patterns suggest that without significant macroeconomic or industry downturns, the adjustment phase may last about a quarter [7]. - High elasticity investment opportunities are expected to arise from the extension of technology themes and macroeconomic narratives. Specific sectors such as CPO, energy storage, and AI power are highlighted as having potential in the short term, with new energy and electric vehicles likely to lead future growth [8][9].