SWHY(SZ:000166) 申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部·2026-03-30 02:13Core Viewpoint - Oil prices continue to rise while gold and silver prices decline, indicating a shift in market dynamics and potential investment opportunities in commodities [3][4]. Group 1: Major Assets & Overseas Events & Data - Oil prices increased, with Brent crude reaching $112.6 per barrel, while COMEX gold and silver prices fell to $4,492.0 per ounce and $67.6 per ounce, respectively [3][47]. - The S&P 500 index dropped by 2.1%, with most sectors declining, particularly communication services and information technology, which fell by 7.2% and 3.5% [5][9]. - The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance rose to $837.4 billion, while the net issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds decreased to $5.16 billion [65][71]. Group 2: U.S. Treasury and Fiscal Data - The cumulative fiscal deficit for the U.S. in 2026 reached $516 billion, down from $553.6 billion in the same period last year, with total expenditures at $1.9235 trillion [71][75]. - Tax revenue increased to $1.0245 trillion compared to $940.8 billion last year, indicating a positive trend in government revenue [71][79]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Japan's CPI for February showed a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with core inflation (excluding policy factors) at 1.7%, indicating stable core inflation trends [110]. - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 210,000, aligning with market expectations, while continuing claims were lower than anticipated at 1.819 million [116][118]. Group 4: Central Bank Policies - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in 2026 increased to 72.4%, reflecting a significant shift in market expectations [4][101]. - The European Central Bank is expected to initiate interest rate hikes in June, with current market sentiment indicating a cautious approach [4][105].