Summary of China Property Market Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Property Market - **Key Data**: - Real Estate Investment (REI) recorded a significant decline of **-35.8% year-on-year** in December, marking the largest drop since December 2009 [1] - New home prices decreased by **-3.0% year-on-year** in December, while secondary home prices fell by **-6.1% year-on-year** [1] - The overall residential sales volume dropped by **-26% year-on-year** in December [1] Core Insights - **Investment Trends**: - REI for FY25 is projected at **Rmb8.3 trillion**, a **-17.2% year-on-year** decline, falling below residential sales of **Rmb8.4 trillion** [2] - New housing starts are at a **21-year low**, with **588 million sqm** started, down **-20% year-on-year** [2] - The area under construction decreased by **-10%**, reaching **6.6 billion sqm** [2] - **Market Conditions**: - The market is expected to face a structural decline into 2026 unless liquidity improves, with anticipated REI dropping by **-13% year-on-year** [3] - National sales are projected to decline by **-11% year-on-year**, with new home average selling prices expected to fall by **-3% year-on-year** [3] - **Policy Impacts**: - Recent government policies aim to stabilize the market, including a reduction in the down payment for commercial properties from **50% to 30%** and extending tax refunds for home sellers [4] - The easing measures are seen as risk control rather than a direct boost to the market [4] Additional Important Points - **Sales and Earnings Outlook**: - Weak sales and earnings downgrades are anticipated, with a potential short-lived rebound in share prices driven by policy expectations [5] - The luxury retail sector showed positive same-store sales growth in Q4, but December results were below expectations [5] - **Land Sales**: - Land sales in 300 cities decreased by **-9% in area** and **-23% in value**, reaching an 18-year low [2] - The government land revenue for the first 11 months of 2025 was down **-11%** [1] - **Macro Economic Indicators**: - China's GDP growth for FY25 is projected at **+5.0% year-on-year**, with a slight deceleration in retail sales growth to **+0.9% year-on-year** in December [1] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China property market.

13 January 2026 | 6:57AM CST Equity Research China Property: Potential housing provident fund (HPF) reform might help to stabilize market We note heightened focus by top-level policymakers on housing provident fund system reform recently. While we look for further official government announcement and details on the reform, we provide a quick introduction of HPF in this report. Overall, we expect potentially larger-scale, lower-cost HPF lending could help stimulate the weak housing market, especially for the ...

Summary of China Property Weekly Wrap Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese property sector**, highlighting recent market activities and policy changes affecting the industry. Key Highlights 1. **Central Level Policies**: - Emphasis on stabilizing market expectations in the property sector due to housing's role as a financial asset and household wealth repository [1] - Policy easing is deemed necessary to align with market expectations and prevent speculation cycles [1] - Recent tax cuts include a reduction in VAT on properties held for less than two years from 5% to 3%, marking the first reduction since 2016 [1] 2. **Market Activity**: - Transaction volumes in the primary market decreased by **18% week-over-week (wow)** and **33% year-over-year (yoy)**, while secondary market transactions fell by **29% wow** and **27% yoy** [2] - Overall market activities softened, with secondary visitation down **9% wow** and new listing supply down **5% wow** [2] - Market sentiment remained stable, with price cuts holding at a ratio of approximately **15 times** those with price increases [2] 3. **Key Data Points**: - New home sales volume averaged **-18% wow** and **-33% yoy**; new home search activities increased by **1.5% wow** [5] - Secondary transactions averaged **-29% wow** and **-27% yoy** [5] - Inventory balance increased by **0.1% wow**, with inventory months at **28.7**, compared to an average of **28.0** in December 2025 [13] 4. **Valuation Insights**: - Stronger state-owned enterprise (SOE) developers saw share prices increase by **6% wow**, with notable performers like Jinmao (+9% wow) and Greentown (+8% wow) [25] - Offshore coverage developers traded at an average **33% discount** to end-2026 estimated net asset value (NAV) [25] - Onshore coverage developers traded at an average **13% discount** to end-2026 estimated NAV [25] 5. **Completions and New Starts**: - Completions are expected to show a **mid-single-digit percentage (MSD)** improvement in December 2025, contrasting with a **-25% to -18% yoy** decline in previous months [18] - New starts are anticipated to decline steeply, reflecting land sales trends and cement shipment ratios [18] Additional Insights - The report indicates a potential decline in home appliance sales based on secondary sales trends in approximately **20 cities** [18] - The overall market remains under pressure, with significant year-over-year declines in both new and existing home sales expected to continue into the next quarter [18] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the current state of the Chinese property market, including policy impacts, market activity, and valuation trends, providing a comprehensive overview for investors and stakeholders in the sector.

Vi e w p o i n t | 05 Jan 2026 10:38:45 ET │ 13 pages China Property Qiushi Journal Commentary on the Sector: Positive but Not Overread CITI'S TAKE Commentary from Qiushi Journal (official media under the CPC Central Committee) (2-Jan-2026) mentioned: [1] property exhibits notable characteristics of financial assets with wide-ranging interconnections, thus enhancing expectation mgmt is critical; [2] property is a pillar industry ('24: 13% of GDP incl. construction; 70m employment) & major source of resident ...

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Industry Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China property industry, specifically analyzing the land acquisitions and sales outlook for 2025 and 2026 [1][10]. Key Findings on Land Acquisitions - **Land Purchase Growth**: The value of land purchases by listed companies increased by 15% year-over-year (yoy) to RMB 478 billion, contrasting with a 7% decline in 300 cities [2][16]. - **Acquisition Concentration**: Only 13 listed companies participated in land purchases in 2025, accounting for 43% of the total, with the top five companies responsible for 71% of the acquisitions [4][24]. - **Geographic Focus**: There was a slight increase in spending in Tier-2 cities, which accounted for 42% of total land purchases in 2025, up from 40% in 2024 [3][32]. - **Top Buyers**: The leading companies in land acquisition included COLI, Poly China, and CR Land, with significant yoy growth from COGO (+96%), Jinmao (+78%), and CMSK (+56%) [4][26]. Sales Outlook - **Sales Projections**: Estimated sales for 2026 are expected to decline by 16% yoy, following a 25% decline in 2025. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are projected to have a smaller decline of 6%, while non-SOEs may see a 17% drop [6][19]. - **Luxury Market Resilience**: High-end properties in core cities are expected to perform better, with companies like Jinmao and Greentown projected to achieve slight sales growth [6][19]. - **Market Dynamics**: The majority of land acquisitions were made by SOEs, which accounted for 75% of land purchases in 2025, indicating a trend towards consolidation in the market [6][19]. Financial Metrics - **Attributable Sales Ratio**: Land purchases represented 33% of attributable sales, marking a new high since 2021, indicating increased investment appetite among leading companies [2][20]. - **Cost Trends**: The average land acquisition cost increased by 23% yoy, reflecting a premium for prime land in Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities [3][20]. Additional Insights - **Market Conditions**: The land market was more active in the first half of 2025, driven by a recovery in sales and a decrease in inventory levels in top cities. However, activity slowed in the second half due to declining sales and secondary price drops [19][36]. - **Strategic Focus**: Companies are increasingly focusing on acquiring high-quality land rather than engaging in indiscriminate purchases, with a notable shift towards securing resources in economically robust Tier-2 cities [15][32]. Conclusion - The China property market is experiencing a complex landscape characterized by selective land acquisitions, a focus on high-quality assets, and a challenging sales environment. The performance of leading companies will be critical in navigating these dynamics as they prepare for 2026.

Summary of China Property Weekly Wrap Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese property market**, specifically analyzing the performance of primary and secondary real estate transactions in the context of fiscal year 2025 (FY25) and the outlook for 2026. Key Highlights 1. **Policy Initiatives**: - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD) has outlined priorities for 2026 aimed at stabilizing the property market, including: - City-specific measures to control new supply and reduce inventory through urban renewal and buybacks of unsold homes for affordable housing [1] - Promotion of high-quality housing initiatives [1] - Enhancement of the "white-list" financing mechanism to support developers' financing needs [1] - Empowerment of local governments to adjust housing policies to support demand [1] - Advancement of new development models to mitigate delivery risks [1] 2. **Local Policy Adjustments**: - Beijing has eased local home purchase restrictions, allowing families with multiple children to buy an additional home within the 5th Ring Road [2] - Potential adjustments in home-purchase rules in other Tier-1 cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen are anticipated [2] 3. **Market Activity**: - Transactions in the primary market improved by **29% week-over-week (wow)**, while the secondary market saw a **5% wow** increase, despite year-over-year (yoy) declines of **-16%** and **-1%** respectively [3][8] - The ratio of units with price cuts narrowed to **15.4 times** those with price increases in December, down from approximately **18 times** in the previous months [3] 4. **Sales and Inventory Data**: - New home sales volume was **-37% yoy**, with search activities down **1.1% wow** [4] - Inventory levels increased by **0.1% wow** but decreased by **3.5%** from the end of 2024, with inventory months at **28.4** [20] 5. **Valuation Insights**: - Stronger state-owned enterprise (SOE) developers experienced a **-1% wow** decline in share prices, while privately-owned enterprises (POE) saw a **-2% wow** drop [32] - Offshore developers are trading at an average **37% discount** to end-2026 estimated net asset value (NAV) [32] 6. **Sales Forecasts**: - Property sales in approximately **75 cities** suggest that top-100 developers' presales are likely to decline **41% yoy** in December, compared to **-36%** in November [8] - Completions are expected to show a **mid-single-digit percentage improvement** yoy in December, with a **-10% yoy** decline projected for FY25 [24] 7. **Market Sentiment**: - Secondary market sentiment remains steady, with subscription-based sales and visitations flattening [3] - Home appliance sales are likely to record a yoy decline in December based on trends in **20 cities** [8] Additional Insights - The report indicates a potential steepened decline in new starts in December, based on land sales trends and cement shipment ratios [8] - The overall market sentiment reflects cautious optimism due to policy adjustments and localized easing measures, which may influence investor focus in the near term [2][3] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the China Property Weekly Wrap, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the Chinese property market.

Summary of China Property Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property** market, highlighting significant declines in various metrics related to real estate investment and sales. Key Points Real Estate Investment (REI) Trends - **November REI** experienced a record drop of **30.3% YoY**, marking the sharpest decline on record, with a total of **RMB 0.5 trillion**, the lowest monthly figure since April 2012 [1][11] - **Completion rates** fell by **26% YoY** in November, slightly improved from **28%** in October [1] - **Starts** decreased by **28% YoY**, consistent with a **29%** decline in October [1] - **Residential sales** dropped by **28% YoY**, the largest single-month decline since May 2024 [1] - The **70-cities price index** for new homes decreased by **2.8% YoY** in November, while secondary homes saw a **5.7% YoY** decline [1] Market Dynamics - **Secondary market sales** in 18 key cities fell by **22% YoY** in November, with average weekly volume showing a **13% MoM** increase, driven by price cuts [2] - Listings in 39 cities remained stable, but cities like Shenzhen and Xi'an saw increased listings, putting pressure on prices [2] - A survey indicated only **9%** of depositors expect housing prices to rise in 2026, a historical low [2] Future Projections - The outlook for 2026 suggests a **structural decline** in the market unless liquidity improves, with expectations of: - **REI** down **13% YoY** - National sales down **11% YoY**, with residential sales projected at **RMB 6.8 trillion** [3] - New home average selling prices (ASP) expected to fall by **3% YoY** [3] - Starts anticipated to drop to levels last seen in 2003, with a **15% YoY** decline [3] Policy and Regulatory Environment - The **Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC)** indicated a more proactive policy tone, with potential demand-side easing measures expected in Q4 2025 [4] - Urban renewals and REIT approvals are likely to accelerate, but significant changes in home price expectations are not anticipated due to ample supply [4] - Monitoring for targeted monetary easing or pro-leverage initiatives is advised, though the likelihood remains low [4] Market Sentiment and Investment Recommendations - The sector's share prices corrected in early December amid debates over weak sales and expectations of policy-driven rebounds, particularly following Vanke's debt extension [5] - Anticipated earnings downgrades in December and January for well-known names in the sector [5] - Luxury mall retail sales are expected to maintain a positive trend in Q4 after outperforming in Q3 [5] - Recommended stocks include **Jinmao, C&D, and CRL** as top picks [5] Additional Insights - The **macro environment** shows mixed signals, with November exports beating expectations at **5.9% YoY**, while retail sales decelerated to **1.3% YoY** despite a higher CPI of **0.7%** [1] - Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) remains weak, down **12%** YoY, with a cumulative decline of **2.6%** for the first eleven months [1] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China property market, emphasizing the significant challenges and potential policy responses.

9 December 2025 Daily dose of HK & mainland China Real Estate Research Focus and Views on the News HK & mainland China Highlights of the day Hong Kong Mainland China Research focus China Real Estate: 2026: Time to move on from analysis paralysis Michelle Kwok* Head of Asia Real Estate and HK Equity Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited michellekwok@hsbc.com.hk +852 2996 6918 Analyst, Asia Real Estate and Conglomerates The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited raymond.w.m ...

Summary of China Property Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The housing industry in China is expected to continue its downtrend in 2026, but with milder declines compared to previous years. The physical market may take longer to bottom out as restoring resident confidence becomes more challenging. However, quality alpha plays are anticipated to outperform negative industry beta [1][3][10]. Key Points Policy Stance - A reactive policy stance is likely to persist, with housing policy narratives in 2026 expected to mirror those of 2025. Risk mitigation will remain the top priority for regulators, with any fiscal-backed stimulus likely to be measured and implemented in the second half of the year to cushion home price declines [3][12][13]. Market Projections - The physical market may not bottom until 2027, with a high single-digit percentage year-on-year drop in primary sales volume and secondary home prices. New starts, completions, and real estate investment are projected to decline in the mid-teens percentage year-on-year [4][10]. Developer Performance - Developers are still facing challenges, with liquidity risk becoming less of a concern. However, industry margins may continue to decline due to lower home prices. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) with quality land banks may see pre-sales margins stabilize in 2026, while private-owned enterprises (POEs) will focus on project completion and deleveraging [5][10]. Investment Opportunities - There is expected to be a divergence in share prices between the overall industry and quality names with credible self-help stories. CR Land and Seazen A are favored as robust mall operators benefiting from policy tailwinds, while C&D and COLI are seen as consolidators in the residential market with optimized land banks supporting margins and earnings [6][10]. Additional Insights - The national primary residential inventory remains high at approximately 2.3 billion square meters, translating to an inventory level of 29.4 months. This includes 0.4 billion square meters of completed inventory, 1.6 billion square meters under construction, and 0.4 billion square meters of idle land [32][38]. - The sentiment among homeowners is deteriorating, with many willing to take losses on property sales. A significant percentage of respondents in tier 1 cities expect housing prices to fall further [30][34]. - Secondary home listings in major cities continue to rise, which may exert downward pressure on secondary home prices in 2026 [35][43]. Conclusion - The China property market is expected to face continued challenges in 2026, with a focus on risk mitigation rather than growth. While quality developers may find opportunities, the overall market sentiment remains weak, and the path to recovery may be prolonged.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese real estate market**, highlighting recent trends in property sales and market activities during week 49 of 2025. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Policy Support**: The State Council continues to support urban renewal initiatives, aiming to stabilize the property market and promote high-quality housing construction and development [1][2] 2. **Market Activity Decline**: Overall market activities have slowed, with primary sales volume down **16% week-over-week (wow)** and secondary sales down **5% wow**. Subscription-based secondary sales also fell by **5% wow** [2][5] 3. **Price Adjustments**: The pressure on secondary prices has eased slightly, with listings that experienced price cuts decreasing by **18% wow**, resulting in a ratio of listings with price cuts to those with price increases at **15.5X** compared to **17.3X** in November [2][5] 4. **Sales Performance**: New home sales volume averaged **-16% wow** and **-44% year-over-year (yoy)**, with tier-3 cities and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) outperforming other tiers. Secondary transactions were down **5% wow** and **-49% yoy** [5][27] 5. **Year-to-Date (YTD) Performance**: Primary Gross Floor Area (GFA) sold was down **14% yoy**, with tier-3 cities and Central & Western regions outperforming. Secondary GFA sold was up **2% yoy** [5][23] 6. **Inventory Levels**: Inventory increased by **0.1% wow** but decreased by **3.6% from the end of 2024**, with inventory months at **27.5** compared to an average of **26.7** in November [37][39] 7. **Valuation Trends**: Offshore developers saw an average share price decline of **2% wow**, while onshore developers averaged **-3% wow**. Offshore coverage trades at a **41% discount** to end-2025 estimated net asset value (NAV) [49][50] Additional Important Insights 1. **Completion Rates**: The GSPC tracker indicates a high single-digit percentage decline in completions for November 2025, with expectations of a **30%-40% yoy decline** in new starts [15][42] 2. **Home Appliance Sales**: Anticipated to decline yoy in November 2025 based on secondary sales trends in approximately 20 cities [15] 3. **Market Sentiment**: The average Centraline Salesman Index (CSI) was down **2.7 percentage points (pp) wow** and **8.2 pp yoy**, indicating a negative sentiment among agents regarding property prices [31][33] 4. **Seller Expectations**: The average Centraline Seller Asking Index (CAI) increased by **0.3 pp wow** but decreased by **10.9 pp yoy**, reflecting mixed expectations among sellers [34][36] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into the current state of the Chinese real estate market, including sales performance, inventory levels, and market sentiment.