迪尔公司股价上涨超10%，有望创收盘历史新高。 来源：滚动播报 ...

1Q 2026 Earnings Call 19 February 2026 $8,508 $9,611 1Q 2025 1Q 2026 $6,809 $8,001 1Q 2025 1Q 2026 $869 $656 1Q 2025 1Q 2026 $3.19 $2.42 1Q 2025 1Q 2026 18% Net Sales and Revenues Net Sales (Equipment Operations) Net Income (attributable to Deere & Company) Diluted EPS ($ per share) 13% 25% 24% Forward-Looking Statements This earnings call and accompanying materials may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 ...

Core Viewpoint - Deere's stock is on track for its eighth record this year, driven by strong earnings and a positive sales growth outlook for 2026, particularly in its construction business [1] Earnings Results - Deere's fiscal first-quarter earnings exceeded expectations, with profits in its construction business more than doubling [1] - The company provided a 2026 sales growth outlook indicating that all business segments are expected to outperform their respective industries [1] Business Segment Performance - Despite challenges in the global large-agriculture business due to tariffs and increased warranty expenses, Deere's overall performance remains strong [1]

Core Insights - Deere (DE) reported quarterly earnings of $2.42 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.92 per share, but down from $3.19 per share a year ago, resulting in an earnings surprise of +26.21% [1] - The company achieved revenues of $8 billion for the quarter, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.22%, compared to $6.81 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - Deere's stock has increased by approximately 27.4% since the beginning of the year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.5% [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $5.55, with projected revenues of $11.32 billion, and for the current fiscal year, the EPS estimate is $16.82 on revenues of $40 billion [7] - The trend of estimate revisions for Deere was unfavorable prior to the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) for the stock, indicating expected underperformance in the near future [6] Industry Context - The Manufacturing - Farm Equipment industry, to which Deere belongs, is currently ranked in the top 36% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% of industries [8] - Alamo Group (ALG), another company in the same industry, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.06 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of -13.8%, with revenues projected at $399.6 million, up 3.7% from the previous year [9][10]

Core Insights - Deere reported a decline in first-quarter profit, primarily affected by tariffs and reduced demand for tractors [1] Company Performance - The company's profit for the first quarter was lower compared to previous periods, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability [1] - Tariffs imposed on imports have negatively impacted the company's financial performance [1] - There is a noticeable weakness in tractor demand, which has further contributed to the decline in profits [1]

Core Viewpoint - Deere & Company reported a net income of $656 million for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, a decrease from $869 million in the same quarter of the previous year, while increasing its net income guidance for the fiscal year to a range of $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion, indicating resilience and growth potential across diverse customer segments and geographies [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Net income for Q1 2026 was $656 million, or $2.42 per share, compared to $869 million, or $3.19 per share, in Q1 2025, reflecting a 25% decrease [1][2] - Worldwide net sales and revenues increased by 13% to $9,611 million in Q1 2026, up from $8,508 million in Q1 2025 [1][2] - Net sales for the quarter were $8,001 million, compared to $6,809 million in the same quarter of 2025, marking a 17.5% increase [1][2] Segment Performance - **Production & Precision Agriculture**: - Net sales increased by 3% to $3,163 million, but operating profit decreased by 59% to $139 million due to higher tariffs and unfavorable sales mix [1][2] - **Small Agriculture & Turf**: - Net sales rose by 24% to $2,168 million, with operating profit increasing by 58% to $196 million, driven by higher shipment volumes [1][2] - **Construction & Forestry**: - Net sales increased by 34% to $2,670 million, with operating profit rising by 111% to $137 million, attributed to higher shipment volumes and production efficiencies [1][2] Company Outlook - The company forecasts net income for fiscal 2026 to be in the range of $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion, indicating a positive outlook for growth as it transitions out of the current cycle [1][2] - Deere's sustained investment in research and development is expected to yield measurable results, enhancing its product portfolio across all business segments [1][2] Industry Outlook - **Agriculture & Turf**: - U.S. & Canada: Large Ag expected to decline by 15% to 20%, while Small Ag & Turf is flat to up 5% [1] - Europe: Flat to up 5% [1] - South America: Down approximately 5% [1] - Asia: Flat to down 5% [1] - **Construction & Forestry**: - U.S. & Canada: Construction Equipment up approximately 5% [1] - Global Forestry flat [1] - Global Roadbuilding up approximately 5% [1]

Financial Performance - Deere & Company reported a net income of $656 million for Q1 2026, down 25% from $869 million in Q1 2025, resulting in earnings per share of $2.42 compared to $3.19[1][25] - Total net sales and revenues increased by 13% to $9,611 million in Q1 2026, up from $8,508 million in Q1 2025, with net sales of $8,001 million compared to $6,809 million[2][24] - Net income for the three months ended February 1, 2026, was $655 million, down from $867 million for the same period in 2025, representing a decrease of about 24.4%[29] - Net income for the Equipment segment decreased to $411 million in Q1 2026 from $637 million in Q1 2025, a decline of 35.5%[40] Segment Performance - Production & Precision Agriculture segment net sales rose by 3% to $3,163 million, while operating profit decreased by 59% to $139 million due to higher tariffs and warranty expenses[4][6] - Small Agriculture & Turf segment net sales increased by 24% to $2,168 million, with operating profit up 58% to $196 million, driven by higher shipment volumes[5][10] - Construction & Forestry segment net sales surged by 34% to $2,670 million, with operating profit more than doubling to $137 million, attributed to production efficiencies and higher shipment volumes[6][13] Financial Outlook - The company forecasts net income for fiscal 2026 to be in the range of $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion, reflecting an increase in guidance[3][5] - The outlook for the agricultural business remains cautious, with potential impacts from global trade policies, commodity prices, and macroeconomic conditions[9][21] - Deere's diverse customer segments and geographies are expected to provide resilience and growth opportunities moving forward[10][5] Cash Flow and Investments - Cash flows from operating activities showed a net cash used of $890 million in Q1 2026, compared to $1,132 million in Q1 2025, indicating an improvement of about 21.4%[29] - Net cash provided by investing activities was $1,822 million in Q1 2026, up from $1,416 million in Q1 2025, reflecting increased cash inflows[40] - Financing activities resulted in a net cash outflow of $2,490 million in Q1 2026, compared to an outflow of $923 million in Q1 2025, indicating higher financing costs[40] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets decreased to $103,436 million as of February 1, 2026, from $105,996 million on November 2, 2025, reflecting a decline of approximately 1.5%[27] - Total liabilities decreased to $77,079 million as of February 1, 2026, from $79,989 million on November 2, 2025, a reduction of about 3.6%[27] - The company reported a decrease in financing receivables to $42,113 million as of February 1, 2026, from $44,575 million on November 2, 2025, a decline of approximately 5.5%[27] Equity and Cash Position - The company’s total stockholders' equity increased to $26,307 million as of February 1, 2026, from $25,956 million on November 2, 2025, reflecting a growth of about 1.4%[27] - Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash at the end of the period were $7,073 million, compared to $6,907 million at the end of the same period in 2025, an increase of approximately 2.4%[29] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $6,798 million from $8,276 million, reflecting a decline of approximately 18%[38] Research and Development - The company is investing in research and development to launch innovative products across all business segments, positioning itself for growth as it transitions out of the current cycle[8][4] - Research and development expenses were $554 million in Q1 2026, up from $526 million in Q1 2025, reflecting an increase of approximately 5.3%[35]

Core Insights - Deere & Company (DE) is set to report its first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on February 19, with earnings expected to be $1.92 per share, reflecting a 39.8% decline year-over-year, while revenues are projected to increase by 11.7% to $7.60 billion [1][4]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deere's earnings has decreased by 4.5% over the past 60 days [1]. - The earnings estimates for the upcoming quarters are as follows: Q1 at $1.92, Q2 at $5.55, F1 at $16.82, and F2 at $21.92 [2]. - The average earnings surprise over the last four quarters has been 5.2%, with three quarters beating estimates and one missing [2][3]. Segment Performance - The Production & Precision Agriculture segment is expected to generate revenues of $3.05 billion, a 0.6% decrease year-over-year, with operating profit projected to drop by 53% to $159 million [8]. - The Small Agriculture & Turf segment is anticipated to see revenues of $2.16 billion, indicating a 23.7% increase, with operating profit expected to rise by 49.2% to $185 million [9]. - The Construction & Forestry segment's sales are projected at $2.37 billion, an 18.7% increase, with operating profit estimated at $84 million, up from $65 million in the prior year [10]. - The Financial Services segment is expected to report revenues of $1.38 billion, a 5.9% decline, with operating profit projected at $238 million, down from $266 million [11]. Market Context - Deere's stock has increased by 27.3% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 24.9% [12]. - The company is currently facing challenges due to weak farmer spending amid low commodity prices, which has led to production adjustments [6].

Core Insights - Deere & Company has maintained a quarterly dividend of $1.62 per share, marking the fourth consecutive quarter at this level, despite facing significant earnings pressure due to an agricultural downturn [1][2] - The company's net income fell 50.5% from its fiscal 2023 peak, with revenue declining to $44.7 billion in fiscal 2025 [1] - Despite these challenges, Deere's stock has appreciated by 33.5% year-to-date, indicating investor optimism regarding a potential recovery in agricultural markets [1] Dividend Growth Trajectory - Deere's annual dividend payouts increased from $3.04 in 2020 to $6.48 in 2025, representing a 113% growth over five years [1] - The company has consistently paid dividends for over two decades, with the current quarterly rate being 7.4 times higher than the $0.22 payment in 2003 [1] Earnings Reality Check - In fiscal 2025, Deere's net income dropped to $5.027 billion from $7.1 billion in fiscal 2024, a year-over-year decline of 29% [1] - Revenue also decreased from $50.518 billion in fiscal 2024 to $44.665 billion in fiscal 2025, with operating margins compressing from 22.6% to 18.8% [1] Cash Flow Metrics - Operating cash flow for fiscal 2025 was $7.459 billion, down 19% from the previous year, leading to a free cash flow of $3.231 billion, which is only 1.88 times the dividend payment [1] - The first quarter of fiscal 2025 saw negative operating cash flow of $1.132 billion, while dividends of $403 million were still paid [1] Balance Sheet Strength - Total shareholder equity rose by 13.6% to $25.95 billion in fiscal 2025, with retained earnings increasing to $59.676 billion [1] - The debt-to-equity ratio improved from 2.87x to 2.47x, with total debt decreasing to $63.936 billion, although interest expenses rose to 7.1% of revenue [1] Historical Context - Deere has previously navigated challenging dividend situations, maintaining dividends even when free cash flow coverage dropped to 0.69x in fiscal 2022 [1] - The current free cash flow coverage of 1.88x is significantly better than past crisis levels [1] Valuation Perspective - Deere's stock trades at a trailing P/E of 33x and a forward P/E of 37x, reflecting investor expectations of future agricultural recovery [1] - The current dividend yield of 1.09% is below the industrial sector average, indicating that the stock may be more suitable for total-return investors rather than those seeking immediate income [1]

Core Insights - Deere (DE) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.92 per share, reflecting a decline of 39.8% year-over-year, while revenues are forecasted to reach $7.6 billion, an increase of 11.7% year-over-year [1] Earnings Estimates - Revisions to earnings estimates are crucial indicators for predicting investor actions regarding the stock, with empirical research showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock performance [2] Revenue Projections - Analysts estimate 'Net Sales and Revenues- Production & precision ag net sales' at $3.05 billion, indicating a decrease of 0.6% from the prior-year quarter [4] - 'Net Sales and Revenues- Equipment Operations- Net sales' is projected to reach $7.58 billion, suggesting an increase of 11.3% year-over-year [4] - 'Net Sales and Revenues- Small ag & turf net sales' is expected to be $2.16 billion, reflecting a growth of 23.7% from the year-ago quarter [5] - 'Net Sales and Revenues- Other revenues' is estimated at $223.12 million, indicating a decline of 2.6% from the prior-year quarter [5] Financial Services Revenue - The consensus estimate for 'Net Sales and Revenues- Financial services revenues' stands at $1.38 billion, suggesting a decrease of 5.9% year-over-year [6] - 'Net Sales and Revenues- Financial services- Total' is projected at $1.49 billion, indicating a year-over-year change of -5.6% [6] - 'Net Sales and Revenues- Financial services- Other Income' is expected to reach $118.14 million, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1% from the prior-year quarter [7] - 'Net Sales and Revenues- Financial services- Finance and Interest Income' is estimated at $1.37 billion, indicating a year-over-year decline of 6% [7] Overall Performance - Analysts forecast 'Net Sales and Revenues- Net sales' to reach $7.55 billion, suggesting a change of +10.9% from the year-ago quarter [8] - 'Net Sales and Revenues- Equipment Operations- Finance and interest income' is projected at $109.94 million, indicating a slight decline of 0.1% from the prior-year quarter [8] - The consensus for 'Net Sales and Revenues- Equipment Operations- Other income' is $196.47 million, reflecting a year-over-year change of -2.7% [9] - Over the past month, Deere shares have increased by 16.1%, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's decline of 2% [9]