By Nathan Gomes and Nandan Mandayam (Reuters) -Deere & Co on Wednesday flagged a bigger hit from tariffs in 2026 ​and forecast its annual profit below estimates on the back of weaker ‌margins on large tractors, sending the farm-equipment maker's shares down 5%. CEO John May said ‌ongoing margin pressures from tariffs would continue to weigh on its large farm equipment unit, although he expects to benefit from cost cuts and demand in its forestry and small agriculture markets. The company expects a pre-t ...

Deere & Co.’s weak forecast for the year ahead reinforces the difficulty in predicting a recovery in the US farm economy as uncertainty continues to swirl over the impact of tariffs and trade deals. Most Read from Bloomberg Shares of the world’s biggest farm machinery maker fell as much as 5.7% in New York as the company’s first profit outlook for 2026 fell short of expectations. The forecast underscores how the agriculture sector remains in the dark even after a US trade agreement resumes crop shipments ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenues for Q3 2025 were down 5% at $4.4 billion, with global ag segment sales down 11% and North America down 29% [9][10] - Industrial adjusted EBIT was $104 million, down 69% year over year, reflecting lower industry demands and tariffs [10][16] - Adjusted net income decreased to $109 million, with adjusted EPS for the quarter at $0.08, down from $0.24 [10][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Agriculture Q3 net sales were just under $3 billion, down 10% year over year, primarily due to a 29% decrease in North America [17] - Construction third quarter net sales were $739 million, up 8% year over year, driven by higher sales in North America and EMEA [20] - Adjusted gross margin for agriculture was 20.6%, down from 22.7% in Q3 2024, affected by lower volumes and tariff costs [17][18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America experienced a 29% decline in agriculture sales, while EMEA saw a 16% increase, particularly in tractors [9][17] - Conditions in South America remain challenging, with geopolitical and market circumstances impacting farmers [5][6] - The overall industry retail demand is expected to be down around 10% from 2024, with construction volumes expected to decline about 5% [27][28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on five strategic pillars: expanding product leadership, advancing iron and tech integration, driving commercial excellence, operational excellence, and quality as a mindset [10][18] - The company is transforming its global supply chain and dealer network to mitigate risks from market volatility [4][6] - Upcoming product launches at Agritechnica are aimed at filling market gaps and gaining ground in EMEA [9][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that market fundamentals remain uncertain and challenging for farmers, particularly in North America and South America [5][6] - The company expects to navigate near-term challenges while investing in business improvements and preparing for future product launches [6][7] - The outlook for 2026 anticipates flat to slightly down global industry retail demand compared to 2025 [31][32] Other Important Information - The company has reduced quality costs by over $60 million year to date, reflecting improvements in operational efficiency [15] - The company repurchased $50 million worth of stock at an average price of $11.25 per share during Q3 [24] - The company is maintaining a focus on margin improvement initiatives despite the current trade environment [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the decremental margin on the volume mix? - The decremental margin was primarily driven by the 29% decline in North America, with EMEA up 16% [35] Question: What is the impact of SG&A on the margin? - SG&A increased due to higher variable compensation accruals, contributing to the margin decline [36] Question: Can you unpack the product cost changes? - Product costs were favorable by $33 million year over year, despite $44 million in tariff costs [38] Question: How much of the tariff cost is tied to different tariff categories? - About 20% of the tariff costs are from Section 232, with no reliance on potential relief from the Supreme Court [43] Question: What gives confidence in achieving desired dealer levels in three to four months? - The company expects to achieve a $1 billion inventory reduction by year-end, allowing for increased production in 2026 [41]

Financial Performance - Consolidated revenues decreased by 5% year-over-year to $4.4 billion[11] - Industrial Activities net sales decreased by 7% year-over-year to $3.7 billion[11] - Industrial Activities adjusted EBIT decreased by 69% year-over-year to $104 million[11] - Net income decreased by 78% year-over-year to $67 million[11] - Adjusted diluted EPS decreased by $0.16 to $0.08[11] Segment Results - Agriculture net sales decreased by 10% year-over-year to $2.963 billion[28] - Agriculture adjusted EBIT decreased by $200 million to $136 million[28] - Construction net sales increased by 8% year-over-year to $739 million[30] - Construction adjusted EBIT decreased by $26 million to $14 million[31] - Financial Services Q3 retail originations decreased by $0.2 billion year-over-year to $2.7 billion[34] - Financial Services managed portfolio decreased by $0.5 billion year-over-year to $28.5 billion[34] Outlook - Agriculture industry retail demand forecast is expected to decrease by 13%-11% year-over-year[39] - Agriculture net sales are expected to be $14.0 billion[39] - Construction industry retail demand forecast is expected to decrease by 5%-3% year-over-year[41] - Construction net sales are expected to be $3.1 billion[41]

Core Insights - CNH Industrial reported third quarter consolidated revenues of $4.4 billion, a decrease of 5% compared to Q3 2024, driven by decreased industry demand and ongoing channel destocking [1][4] - The company’s net income for the quarter was $67 million, down 78% from $310 million in the same period last year, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) falling to $0.06 from $0.24 [1][4] - Despite the challenging market conditions, CNH is focused on cost management and operational excellence, while also increasing net sales guidance but lowering profit guidance due to tariff headwinds and an unfavorable geographic sales mix [1][2] Financial Performance - Consolidated revenues for Q3 2025 were $4.4 billion, down from $4.65 billion in Q3 2024 [4] - Net sales from Industrial Activities were $3.7 billion, a decrease of 7% year-over-year [4] - Adjusted EBIT for Industrial Activities fell to $104 million, down 69% from $336 million in Q3 2024, with an adjusted EBIT margin of 2.8% compared to 8.4% in the previous year [4][5] - The gross profit margin for Industrial Activities decreased to 19.1%, down 260 basis points from 21.7% in Q3 2024 [4] Segment Performance Agriculture - Agriculture net sales decreased by 10% to $2.96 billion, primarily due to lower shipment volumes and decreased industry demand in North America [7][8] - Adjusted EBIT for the Agriculture segment dropped to $137 million, down 59% from $336 million in Q3 2024, with an adjusted EBIT margin of 4.6% [9] Construction - Construction net sales increased by 8% to $739 million, reflecting higher shipment volumes in North America and EMEA [10][11] - Adjusted EBIT for the Construction segment decreased to $14 million, down 65% from $40 million in Q3 2024, with an adjusted EBIT margin of 1.9% [11] Financial Services - Financial Services revenues increased by 4% to $684 million, driven by higher yields in Brazil [12] - Net income for Financial Services was $47 million, a decrease of 40% compared to Q3 2024, primarily due to increased risk costs and lower volumes [13] Outlook - The company updated its 2025 outlook, projecting Agriculture segment net sales to decline between 11% and 13% year-over-year, and Construction segment net sales to decrease between 3% and 5% [17] - Adjusted diluted EPS is expected to be between $0.44 and $0.50 [18] - CNH is focusing on reducing operating costs and managing SG&A and R&D expenses to mitigate margin erosion [15][16]

Core Insights - The reduction in GST rates on select vehicles has revitalized retail sentiment, leading to increased demand for auto loans and passenger vehicle sales [1][3][6] Vehicle Loan Growth - In September, India's banking sector experienced a vehicle loan growth of 7.3% year-on-year, a decline from the 14% growth seen in the same month the previous year [2] - For the first half of the current financial year, vehicle loan growth ranged from 7.3% to 10.8%, compared to a rise of 13.9% to 17.2% in the same period last year [2] Impact of GST Reform - The GST reforms effective from September 22 created a two-slab tax system, significantly reducing rates on certain vehicle categories, which has led to a recovery in vehicle demand [3][8] - State Bank of India reported a nearly 10% year-on-year growth in auto loans to ₹1.28 trillion during the September quarter, attributing this to the GST cuts [8] Segment Performance - Commercial vehicle sales increased by over 8% year-on-year to 240,000 units, while passenger vehicle sales fell by 1.5% to 1.04 million units, although there were signs of recovery towards the end of the quarter [9] - The two-wheeler segment saw over 7% year-on-year growth, totaling 5.56 million units sold in the July-September period [12] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Bankers noted that the recent uptick in vehicle loans is still in early stages, with sustainability dependent on continued demand through the festive season [6] - IndusInd Bank reported a significant rebound in vehicle loan disbursements post-GST implementation, with expectations of continued demand momentum supported by the festive season and improved economic activity [17][16] Commercial Vehicle Segment Challenges - Despite some growth in commercial vehicle sales, lenders remain cautious due to borrower over-leverage and economic sluggishness, leading to tightened underwriting standards [21][23] - The effective cost for customers in the commercial vehicle segment has not changed significantly, as manufacturers have reduced discounts rather than passing on the full benefits of GST cuts [20][21]

Financial Performance - Net sales for Q3 2025 were $24763 million, a decrease of 47% compared to Q3 2024[7] - Operating income for Q3 2025 was $1516 million, a 321% increase compared to Q3 2024[7] - Adjusted operating income for Q3 2025 was $1850 million, a 287% increase compared to Q3 2024[7] - Year-to-date net sales in 2025 were $71618 million, an 184% decrease compared to the same period in 2024[7] - Year-to-date adjusted operating income was $4859 million, a 359% decrease compared to the same period in 2024[7] - The company generated $65 million in free cash flow through September YTD 2025[34] Market Overview - North America industry tractor sales are down approximately 10% year-to-date in September 2025 compared to 2024[9] - Brazil industry tractor sales are down approximately 29% year-to-date in September 2025 compared to 2024[9] - Western Europe industry tractor sales are down approximately 8% for tractors and up 3% for combines year-to-date in September 2025 compared to 2024[9] Strategic Initiatives - The company is executing a restructuring program expected to capture $175-200 million in expense savings[17]

Core Insights - Illinois soybean growers are facing significant financial losses, averaging up to $64 per acre due to low crop prices and weak exports, as estimated by the University of Illinois [1][8] - The U.S. soybean industry is struggling to find alternative markets to replace China, which has historically been the largest importer of U.S. soybeans [2][15] - The trade war between the U.S. and China has led to a 39% drop in U.S. soybean exports to China by volume, resulting in a 51% decrease in value, equating to a loss of billions for farmers [8][18] Market Dynamics - Farmers are storing their crops in hopes of price recovery, as they have sold some harvests at prices below production costs [2][5] - The U.S. has seen a slight increase in exports to countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam, but these markets are not sufficient to offset the losses from the absence of Chinese demand [9][12] - The U.S. Agriculture Secretary announced a commitment from Taiwan for $10 billion in U.S. agricultural purchases over four years, but this does not represent an increase in demand [11] Industry Impact - The decline in soybean exports has negatively affected related industries, including equipment manufacturers like CNH, which reported a 20% drop in net sales in its agriculture business [19] - The financial strain on farmers is expected to have broader implications for rural America, affecting various sectors beyond agriculture [18] - The U.S. soybean industry is exploring new markets in regions like Southeast Asia and North Africa, but these efforts are still in early stages and may take time to yield results [10][14]

Core Insights - Deere & Company and AGCO Corporation are prominent players in the agricultural machinery industry, both investing in advanced technologies like precision agriculture and smart farming solutions [1][2] - Both companies are positioned to benefit from long-term trends such as rising food demand and sustainable farming practices, but face challenges due to weakened farmer sentiment stemming from lower commodity prices and higher costs [2][22] Deere & Company - Deere has a market capitalization of $127 billion and specializes in agricultural, forestry, and turf equipment, with a strong focus on precision farming technology [4] - The company has experienced declining revenues for eight consecutive quarters and expects a continued decline in fiscal 2025, particularly in the large agriculture equipment market, projected to drop by 30% [5][6] - Net income for fiscal 2025 is anticipated to be between $4.75 billion and $5.25 billion, significantly lower than the $7.1 billion reported in fiscal 2024 [7] - Deere is managing production levels and cutting costs to maintain margins, while focusing on innovation and geographic expansion to drive long-term growth [8] - Recent acquisitions, such as GUSS Automation, aim to enhance competitive edge through advanced technology [9] AGCO Corporation - AGCO has a market capitalization of approximately $8.2 billion and offers a range of agricultural machinery and precision agriculture technology [10] - The company has also seen declining revenues and earnings for seven consecutive quarters, with a revised net sales guidance of $9.8 billion for 2025, indicating a 15.5% year-over-year decline [11] - In North America, AGCO expects a 25-30% decline in sales volumes of large agricultural equipment and a 5% decline in small agricultural equipment [12] - AGCO is implementing aggressive production cuts and restructuring actions to focus on core agricultural equipment [12] - The company continues to invest in premium technology and sustainable farming solutions to enhance product offerings and improve margins [13][14] Financial Comparisons - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deere's fiscal 2025 earnings is $18.58 per share, reflecting a 27.6% year-over-year decline, while AGCO's estimate is $4.77 per share, indicating a 36.4% decline [15] - Year-to-date, AGCO shares have increased by 17.4%, outperforming Deere's 10.8% gain [17] - AGCO trades at a lower forward earnings multiple of 18.20X compared to Deere's 22.84X, making AGCO more attractive from a valuation perspective [19][23]

Industry Trend - High-end products, including cars, phones, and tractors, are increasingly stolen [1] - These stolen goods are being trafficked to serve distant markets [1]