【电新】 商业航天发展提速，太空光伏迎布局良机 投资建议：商业航天快速发展，太空光伏将充分受益。 太阳能是商业航天中唯一可靠的能源，并且其光照强度约为地面光伏的 5-10 倍，发电量较地面成倍 提升。目前海外如 SpaceX 等企业在火箭发射等方面具备成本优势，催生了低轨卫星互联网等商用场景的发展，未来太空数据中心等商业模式有望得到大力 开发，国内厂商凭借在晶硅和钙钛矿等技术上的成本和技术优势，将在太空数据中心的能源供应中扮演重要角色。 发展契机： 目前砷化镓是太空能源的主流路线，晶硅和钙钛矿技术的成本和效率正不断提升，砷化镓性价比提升空间相对有限。太空数据中心未来的需求潜 力较大，而砷化镓的成本和供给受到一定的约束，企业已开始探索使用晶硅和钙钛矿叠层方案，部分晶硅企业已开始成功出货。 技术路线： 我们认为，如果发展太空数据中心等商业场景，经济性将成为一个重要的因素，钙钛矿和晶硅凭借较好的成本优势有机会取得成功。根据 Starcloud 的白皮书，能源成本是太空数据中心的最大成本变数，根据我们测算，晶硅组件的供应最成熟，在制造成本端有较为明显的优势，而钙钛矿组件由 于质量比功率的优势，能够显著降低发射成本。 ...

报 告 导 读 ： 上周（ 2026/1/19-2026/1/23 ）机械设备指数涨跌幅为 +3.19% 。 SpaceX 与特斯拉三年内规划年化 100GW 太阳能产能，商业航天产业推进会即将召开。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： SpaceX与特斯拉规划部署太阳能产能，光伏产业链迎发展新机遇；报告日期：2026.01.26 报告作者： 肖群稀（分析师），登记编号：S0880522120001 丁嘉一（分析师），登记编号：S0880525080009 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 机器人：特斯拉人形机器人商业化节奏进一步明朗。 马斯克在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛对话中表示，人形机器人 Optimus 目前已在特斯拉工厂执行部分简单 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [4] Core Insights - SpaceX and Tesla plan to deploy an annual solar capacity of 100GW within three years, indicating a significant opportunity for the photovoltaic industry [2][5] - The commercial aerospace industry is advancing, with a high-quality development conference scheduled in Beijing, showcasing the growth and innovation in this sector [5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The mechanical equipment index increased by 3.19% from January 19 to January 23, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which decreased by 0.62% [8] - The mechanical equipment sector ranked 13th among 31 industries in terms of performance during this period [8] Investment Highlights - The report recommends several companies across various sectors, including: - Humanoid Robots: Hengli Hydraulic, Changying Precision, Zhaowei Electric, Donghua Testing - Chip Equipment: Keri Technology - Commercial Aerospace: Plit Technology - AI Infrastructure: Ice Wheel Environment, Hanzhong Precision Machinery - Engineering Machinery: Hengli Hydraulic, SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion [5] Photovoltaic Industry - SpaceX and Tesla's solar manufacturing capacity will focus on space applications, leveraging advantages such as high sunlight exposure and minimal atmospheric attenuation in near-Earth orbit [5] - The report emphasizes the need for advancements in battery efficiency, lightweight materials, and reliability for space photovoltaic applications [5] Commercial Aerospace - The upcoming conference in Beijing will introduce multiple innovative service platforms, indicating a push for enhanced capabilities in research, testing, manufacturing, and support services within the commercial aerospace sector [5] - The report highlights the growth trajectory of the aerospace industry, with significant satellite launches and revenue projections for 2025 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the photovoltaic industry, expecting overall returns to exceed the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [42]. Core Viewpoints - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing favorable developments, particularly in equipment demand. The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, is expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated capacity and shift the industry from price competition to technological competition, promoting high-quality development [4][10]. - Elon Musk announced at the World Economic Forum that SpaceX and Tesla are advancing solar energy production, aiming for an annual capacity of 100GW within three years. The potential for solar energy generation in space is highlighted, as it can receive sunlight continuously and efficiently, opening new demand scenarios for photovoltaic equipment [4][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Viewpoints and Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for the photovoltaic industry, driven by policy changes and technological advancements. The cancellation of export VAT rebates is seen as a move to enhance global competitiveness for leading companies with technological advantages [4][10]. Industry Key News - The report notes significant developments in the engineering machinery sector, with a 26% year-on-year increase in import and export trade for engineering machinery in December 2025, amounting to $6.63 billion. Exports alone saw a 27.2% increase [11]. - The report highlights the construction activity in various provinces, with 18 provinces reporting an equipment utilization rate exceeding 50%, indicating robust infrastructure investment across the country [12][14]. Key Company Announcements - The report includes announcements from several companies, such as Shuangliang Energy winning a bid for a significant thermal power project valued at approximately RMB 2.36 billion, which will enhance energy supply and support industrial heating needs in the region [20]. - Other companies, like Nankuang Group and Precision Technology, are also making strides in securing contracts and projecting positive earnings growth for 2025, reflecting a strong demand for their products and services [21][28].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or SpaceX Core Insights - SpaceX is recognized as a leading representative in the commercial space industry, with unique advantages such as vertical integration, cost control, and a supportive government-business collaboration model [2][3][4][5][8][12][29] Summary by Sections SpaceX's Competitive Advantages - SpaceX's vertical integration allows it to produce 85% of its core components in-house, enhancing quality control and reducing costs compared to competitors that rely on outsourcing [3] - The company has pioneered reusable rocket technology, significantly lowering launch costs to $3,000 per kilogram, compared to the global average of $10,000 to $20,000 per kilogram [4] - The Starlink project has created a closed-loop ecosystem, providing continuous demand for rocket launches while generating substantial revenue, with Starlink contributing approximately $4.178 billion to SpaceX's total revenue of around $8 billion in 2023 [5][12] Government Support and Collaboration - SpaceX has received over $15 billion in government contracts from NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense, which have been crucial for its development and financial stability [8][20] - NASA has provided extensive technical support and access to critical data, which has been instrumental in SpaceX's rapid technological advancements [21][22] - The U.S. government has established policies that favor commercial space ventures, allowing SpaceX to operate in a more favorable regulatory environment compared to its competitors [23][29] Financing and Market Position - SpaceX has demonstrated exceptional financing capabilities, raising over $10 billion through various channels, including equity financing and government contracts [12] - The company has a strong user base for Starlink, with over 4 million subscribers, contributing to its cash flow and enabling further technological development [12] - The report highlights the challenges faced by Chinese private space companies in replicating SpaceX's success due to differences in technology, policy environment, and capital market maturity [15][16] Chinese Commercial Space Industry - China's commercial space policies have gradually improved since 2015, but significant barriers remain, particularly in financing and access to critical resources [34][41] - The report notes that while there are over 400 commercial space companies in China, most are private, and many face challenges in rocket manufacturing and deployment [34] - The demand for satellite deployment in China is increasing, with plans to launch over 15,318 satellites by 2027, indicating a growing market potential [36][38]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report "Big Ideas 2026" by ARK Invest identifies thirteen disruptive technology trends that will reshape the global economy over the next five years, emphasizing the deep integration of five major innovation platforms leading to a "Great Acceleration" era [1][24]. Group 2: Technological Convergence Driving Growth - Five major platforms—Artificial Intelligence, Public Blockchains, Robotics, Energy Storage, and Multiomics—are interdependent, creating network effects that enhance their growth. The "Convergence Network Strength" metric is projected to grow by 35% in 2025, indicating significant interaction among these technologies [2][32]. - The macroeconomic impact of this technological fusion is substantial, with autonomous vehicle fleets, next-gen data centers, and AI agents expected to contribute 1.9 percentage points to the annual growth of the U.S. GDP [2][48]. Group 3: AI Infrastructure Investment Surge - Global investment in data center systems is expected to reach $500 billion by 2025, 2.5 times the average from 2012 to 2023, and is projected to grow to $1.4 trillion by 2030 [2]. - Capital expenditures by large enterprises are anticipated to exceed $500 billion in 2026, three times the level before the ChatGPT boom in 2021 [2]. Group 4: AI as a Consumer Operating System - AI is evolving from a tool to a consumer operating system, with natural language-driven interactions becoming the norm. ChatGPT achieved a 25% penetration rate among smartphone users in just two years, compared to seven years for the internet [4]. - By 2030, AI shopping agents are expected to facilitate $8 trillion in online consumption, generating $900 billion in business revenue [4]. Group 5: Bitcoin's Institutional Transformation - 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for Bitcoin, transitioning from a speculative asset to a reserve asset, driven by regulatory approvals and institutional adoption [6]. - ARK's valuation model suggests Bitcoin's market cap could reach $16 trillion by 2030, translating to a price of approximately $800,000 per coin [6]. Group 6: Tokenization of Physical Assets - The market for tokenized assets is expected to grow significantly, with stablecoin transaction volumes projected to reach $3.5 trillion monthly by 2025, surpassing traditional payment methods [8]. - By the 2030s, tokenized assets could exceed $11 trillion, representing 1.38% of global financial assets [8]. Group 7: Multiomics and AI in Biology - Multiomics, which integrates various biological data types, is set to revolutionize biology through AI, with costs for whole genome sequencing expected to drop from $1,000 in 2025 to $10 by 2030 [9]. - The FDA's approval rate for AI diagnostic devices is projected to rise from single digits to 30% by 2030, ultimately reaching 100% [9]. Group 8: Reusable Rockets and Space Economy - SpaceX has significantly reduced launch costs, with projections indicating further reductions as reusable rockets become more prevalent [10]. - The satellite communication market is expected to capture 1.2% of global communication spending, with a substantial opportunity for services in remote areas [10]. Group 9: Robotics Evolution - The shift from specialized to general-purpose robots is underway, with significant market opportunities in manufacturing and home services projected to reach $26 trillion [12]. - The "robot as a service" model is expected to lower adoption barriers, allowing users to pay for tasks rather than hardware [12]. Group 10: Distributed Energy and AI - The demand for energy is expected to surge, necessitating a $10 trillion investment in global power infrastructure by 2030 [14]. - The deployment of energy storage solutions must increase by 19 times to meet the needs of AI data centers [14]. Group 11: Autonomous Logistics Transformation - The logistics sector is being reshaped by autonomous delivery systems, with costs for long-distance trucking expected to drop by 60% [15]. - By 2030, revenues from autonomous logistics are projected to reach $480 billion, fundamentally altering e-commerce fulfillment [15]. Group 12: Investment Philosophy - ARK's investment philosophy focuses on identifying critical points of technological convergence that can yield nonlinear returns, emphasizing the importance of companies that effectively integrate these technologies into sustainable business models [17].

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 人形机器人+航空航天双轮驱动，旋转变压器迎广阔新兴市场 汽车行业周报 投资评级： （ ） 报告日期： 推荐 维持 2026年01月26日 ◼ 分析师：林子健 ◼ SAC编号：S1050523090001 投 资 要 点 ▌人形机器人+航空航天双轮驱动，旋转变压器迎来广阔新兴市场 依托极强的抗冲击抗振特性，旋转变压器有望适配人形机器人关节。旋变采用无接触式电磁感应原理，无 磨损部件仅轴承存在微量损耗，实现近乎无限的使用寿命，无需频繁维护更换，完美契合人形机器人对关 节部件高可靠性、长耐久性、抗复杂工况的严苛要求。人形机器人旋变市场规模有望远超传统旋变市场空 间。我们认为出于人形机器人的抗冲击性要求和寿命要求，人形机器人将会应用旋转变压器用来替代编码 器。我们预测到2030年人形机器人旋变市场规模有望达到61.5亿元，到2035年有望达到471.0亿元市场 规模，2026-2035年CAGR为85.9%。 卫星发射数量快速上升，带动航天领域旋变市场放量。从发射计划数据看，SpaceX将在2033年完成4.2万 颗发射，国网星座将在2035年前发射1.3万颗，千帆星座将在2030年 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or SpaceX Core Insights - SpaceX is recognized as a leading representative in the commercial space industry, with unique advantages such as vertical integration, cost control, and a supportive government-business collaboration model [2][3][4][5][8][12][29] Summary by Sections Vertical Integration and Cost Control - SpaceX's vertical integration allows it to produce 85% of its core components in-house, including engines and electronic systems, which enhances quality control and reduces production costs [3] - The Falcon 9 rocket's reusability has significantly lowered launch costs to $3,000 per kilogram, compared to the global average of $10,000 to $20,000 per kilogram [4] Starlink Project - The Starlink project has created a global broadband network with over 5,000 LEO satellites, generating approximately $4.178 billion in revenue for SpaceX in 2023, making it the largest revenue source for the company [5] Government Support - SpaceX has received over $15 billion in government contracts from NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense from 2006 to 2021, which has been crucial for its technology development and financial stability [8][20] - NASA has provided extensive technical support and access to facilities, which has been vital for SpaceX's rapid development [21][22] Financing Capabilities - SpaceX has raised over $10 billion through diverse financing methods, including equity financing and government contracts, with significant investments from major firms like Sequoia Capital and Google [12][29] Talent Pool - SpaceX employs over 13,000 engineers and high-end manufacturing talent, fostering a culture of rapid technological innovation [14] Replicability of SpaceX's Model - The replicability of SpaceX's business model is constrained by factors such as technological capabilities, policy environments, and the maturity of capital markets [15][16] Challenges in China's Commercial Space Sector - China's commercial space policies have been gradually improving since 2015, but significant barriers remain, particularly in financing and access to key resources [34][41] - The approval process for private enterprises is lengthy and complex, limiting their ability to participate in government contracts and core tasks [35][40]

来源丨 旅界（ID：tourismzonenews） 以下文章来源于旅界 ，作者theodore熙少 旅界 . 跟踪时代浪潮，讲述文旅商业好故事。 作者丨 theodore熙少 图源丨Midjourney 这两天，演员黄景瑜要上天的消息引爆了社交媒体网络。 据北京穿越者载人航天科技有限公司披露，该公司的穿越者壹号太空船，可将乘客运送至距离地面高 度 100公里的卡门线，体验3到6分钟的失重，黄景瑜是第009名乘客。 据多家媒体披露，这条太空飞船启动商业化预售后， 2023年售出第一张，目前已预售近20张，预售 船票价格为300万元一张，预付10%即可锁定名额。 首批乘客名单里，除了黄景瑜，还包括穿越者创始人兼 CEO雷诗情、中国工程院院士李立浧、智元 机器人CMO邱恒、探路者创始人王静、啟赋资本董事长兼创始人傅哲宽，甚至还出现了一个叫众擎 PM01的人形机器人。 这组跨越碳基与硅基生命的名单迅速引发了公众对中国首家载人商业航天企业的关注。 而从传播视角来看，考虑到黄景瑜娱乐圈身份，虽然是否为自费游客暂未披露，但这张明星船票更像 是引爆公众关注的角色，而非纯粹购票行为。 伴随着中国太空商业首飞名单公布，热搜上的 ...

1月22日，特斯拉CEO马斯克在达沃斯论坛的一番表态，让沉寂半个多世纪的太空光伏概念瞬间引爆资本市场。他提出，将通过星舰实现年8000次发射， 部署太阳能AI卫星网络，未来三年联合SpaceX建设200GW光伏产能，目标2030年前达成首个100GW太空光伏里程碑。 受此刺激，1月23日A股光伏板块全线飙升，东方日升、晶科能源等20余只个股涨幅超5%，欧普泰、迈为股份等多家公司涨停。1月26日开盘，光伏产业 链再度走强，太空光伏概念股领涨。明阳智能、拓日新能、协鑫集成、钧达股份、双良节能涨停，东方日升、欧普泰、奥特维、连城数控高开超10%。这 场横跨航天与光伏的资本狂欢，究竟是技术革命的前奏，还是新一轮概念炒作？ 不止航天标配！太空光伏的万亿新玩法 太空光伏并非全新概念，其本质是在太空环境部署光伏组件实现发电，核心分为两大层次：狭义上为航天器自身提供电力，这一技术已应用近70年；广义 上则是构建大型太空光伏阵列，通过微波或激光将电能无线传输至地面电网，这仍处于理论探索阶段。1958年，美国"先锋一号"卫星首次搭载光伏电池进 入太空，奠定了其在航天领域的应用基础，如今几乎所有航天器都以光伏为核心供能方式。 与地 ...