CHIPS Act and Semiconductor Industry Objectives - The CHIPS Act aims to incentivize domestic semiconductor manufacturing by closing the cost gap with countries like Taiwan and Korea [3] - The core objective is to bolster national security by reducing reliance on foreign chip manufacturers [5][10] - A stable, long-term industrial policy is crucial due to the significant investment (e g, $25 billion for a leading-edge fab) and long construction timelines (3-5 years) involved in semiconductor manufacturing [8] Equity Stakes vs Grants - Providing equity as an incentive differs from grants, as companies can typically raise equity in private markets [4] - Concerns exist that equity stakes may attract companies primarily seeking liquidity rather than enhancing competitiveness [12] - Grants are designed to make companies cost-competitive with international manufacturers [11] Government's Role and Potential Risks - The government's role is to take calculated risks to support the semiconductor industry [20] - There's a need to protect taxpayer dollars through structured awards tied to milestones [19][20] - The government should focus on the demand side to help companies like Intel fill their fabs [21] - Pressuring private enterprises to purchase domestically produced chips raises complex questions [22] Industrial Policy Toolkit - Tariffs, grants, tax credits, and loans are all tools in the industrial policy toolkit [7] - The current administration has increased the tax credit for CHIPS investment [7] - A diversified investment portfolio across companies like Micron, Samsung, TSMC, and Intel is essential [19]

TSMC has fared exceptionally well at home, growing into a giant of the global tech industry. But expanding abroad is a geopolitical risk for the Taiwanese firm https://t.co/2U0jrUVp8r ...

>> THIS IS "HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA." OUR TOP STORIES THIS MORNING. MARKETS REMAIN IN WAIT AND SEE MODE AS CENTRAL BANKERS GATHERED IN JACKSON HOLE WITH INVESTORS AWAITING REMARKS FROM FED CHAIRMAN JEROME POWELL. FED GOVERNOR LISA COOK SAYS SHE WILL NOT BE BULLIED INTO STEPPING DOWN AS PRESIDENT TRUMP DEMANDS HER RESIGNATION OVER ALLEGATIONS OF MORTGAGE FRAUD.AND ISRAEL IS DOUBLING ITS ARMY RESERVISTS IN THE WAR AGAINST HAMAS IN GAZA, A SIGN THAT PREPARATIONS ARE UNDERWAY FOR A STEPPED-UP OFFENSIVE DE ...

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Group 1 - The U.S. government is considering taking an equity stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) following the CHIPS Act, which supports the semiconductor industry [1][3][4] - TSMC was awarded $6.6 billion in U.S. government semiconductor subsidies, similar to Intel's $10.9 billion grant [3][4] - If the U.S. government converts its $6.6 billion grant into an equity stake in TSMC, it would remove that amount from TSMC's balance sheet while still allowing the company to retain the funds [5] Group 2 - There are concerns that if the government only invests in Intel and not in TSMC, it could create a competitive disadvantage for TSMC, potentially harming its market position [6]

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Core Viewpoint - Key semiconductor stocks experienced declines in both Asia and the U.S. following reports that the Trump administration may seek equity stakes in companies receiving federal grants under the CHIPS Act [1][2]. Government Plans - U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is considering a plan for the government to acquire equity stakes in chip-producing companies, specifically mentioning Intel, in exchange for grants under the CHIPS Act [1][2]. - The potential deal with Intel could result in the government obtaining a 10% stake in the company [2]. Impact on Other Companies - The equity stake condition may extend to other companies receiving grants under the CHIPS Act, including Micron, TSMC, and Samsung [3]. - A significant portion of the grant money allocated to these companies has yet to be disbursed [3]. Market Reactions - Intel's shares fell over 1% to $25.02 after a nearly 7% increase the previous day [4]. - AMD shares dropped 1.4% in premarket trading after a 5.4% decline on Tuesday, while Micron's shares fell 5.16% [4]. - In Asia, TSMC's shares decreased by 4.2% to TWD 1,135, and SK Hynix shares fell by 2.9% to KRW 255,500 [4]. Nvidia's Position - Nvidia's shares rose slightly to $175.85, as the company has not received any grants under the CHIPS Act due to its reliance on external chip manufacturers like TSMC and Samsung [5]. Political Context - Former President Donald Trump has criticized the Biden-era CHIPS Act, labeling it ineffective and suggesting that the government should seek equity for the funds provided to companies [6]. - Lutnick emphasized the shift in approach, stating that the Biden administration was giving money without seeking equity, while the Trump administration aims to secure a stake in return for financial support [6]. Additional Developments - SoftBank announced a deal to purchase $2 billion worth of Intel stock at $23 per share [7].

Core Insights - Intel stock surged nearly 7% following reports of potential government investment and a significant stake from SoftBank, indicating renewed investor interest and potential for a stock rally [1][2] - The company has faced challenges including declining revenues and market share losses, but government backing and a domestic manufacturing edge could drive a turnaround [2][4] - Intel's revenue is projected to decline to about $52 billion in 2024, but there are signs of potential recovery with a projected annual growth of 7% from 2025 to 2028 [4][9] Revenue Trends - Intel's revenues fell from $79 billion in 2021 to $53 billion in 2024 due to a cooling PC market and competition from AMD [4] - The PC market is expected to recover with low single-digit growth, but Intel's sales are still projected to dip by 2% this year [4] - A rebound in CPU-related spending and stronger product offerings could position Intel to benefit from the recovery in the PC market [8] Margin Analysis - Intel's adjusted net margins have declined from around 29% in 2021 to approximately 8.5% in 2023, with negative margins expected in 2024 [10] - The company plans to cut $1.5 billion in operating expenses and lay off about 25,000 employees, which could improve margins over time [11] - If margins recover to about 20% by 2028, this could significantly enhance profitability [11] Valuation Insights - Currently trading at about $25 per share, Intel's valuation reflects a high earnings multiple, with potential for significant upside if growth resumes [12] - If revenue grows to about $64 billion by 2028 with adjusted net income reaching nearly $13 billion, the stock price could approach $60 per share [12] - The turnaround timeline is flexible, with potential gains expected as key metrics improve [13]

Let's get over to Christina Parson. She's at the NASDAQ. Has more on what all this could mean for Intel.Fascinating story in terms of what you can imagine with a 10% holder. He went on to say as well that they don't want governance rights if in fact they do get there. But a lot yet to come here, Christina.>> Yeah, they don't want voting rights and I'll get to that, but this is essentially if we're talking about the Soft Bank, it's a $2 billion lifeline from the private sector and shareholders really need to ...

Core Insights - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is advancing its global manufacturing expansion to meet the demand for advanced process technologies, raising its planned U.S. investment to $165 billion by March 2025 [1][10] - The expansion includes six advanced wafer fabs, two advanced packaging facilities, and a major R&D center in Arizona, aimed at supporting leading-edge customers in smartphones, AI, and HPC applications [1][10] - TSMC is also expanding in Japan with its first Kumamoto specialty fab already in production and a second fab set to begin construction later this year [2] - In Europe, TSMC plans to establish a specialty technology fab in Dresden, Germany [2] - This global expansion strategy is intended to secure leadership in advanced chip manufacturing and address geopolitical concerns through supply chain diversification [3] Financial Performance and Projections - TSMC anticipates a gross margin contraction of 2-3% in 2025, with further dilution expected to widen to 3-4% annually in subsequent years due to the ramp-up of new fabs [3][10] - In Q2 2025, TSMC's gross margin declined by 20 basis points sequentially, with forecasts indicating a further contraction of 210 basis points in Q3 [4] - The company plans to allocate $38-$42 billion in capital expenditures (CapEx) for 2025, emphasizing the importance of execution and cost discipline to protect margins [4] - Despite these challenges, TSMC remains confident in sustaining a long-term gross margin above 53% [4] Competitive Landscape - TSMC leads the global foundry market, but competitors like Intel and GlobalFoundries are increasing their efforts in localized chip manufacturing [5] - Intel is investing $100 billion for new fabs in the U.S. and Europe under its IDM 2.0 strategy, aiming to compete directly with TSMC [6] - GlobalFoundries is expanding capacity in the U.S., Germany, and Singapore to meet demand for automotive, IoT, and industrial chips, positioning itself as a trusted local manufacturing partner [7] Stock Performance and Valuation - TSMC's shares have increased approximately 22.3% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's growth of 13.8% [8] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 23.13, which is lower than the sector's average of 28.19 [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TSMC's earnings in 2025 and 2026 indicates a year-over-year increase of 36.9% and 13.1%, respectively, although estimates have been revised downwards recently [15]