TotalEnergies (NYSE: TTE) is a proven survivor in the oil patch. It is also an innovator that has started to include electricity production in its energy portfolio. The current geopolitical tension in Venezuela and elsewhere could cause some disruption to the energy market, but it won't stop me from continuing to buy TotalEnergies' stock. Energy prices have always been volatile While some theorists claim that Wall Street is efficient, the truth is that it can be highly emotional over short periods. That' ...

Core Viewpoint - Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 30, with earnings per share (EPS) estimated to rise by 0.6% year-over-year, while revenues are projected to decline by 0.3% compared to the previous year [1][2][6]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings is $1.68 per share, reflecting a slight improvement from the previous year [2]. - The estimated revenue for the fourth quarter is $83.2 billion, indicating a decrease from the year-ago figures [2]. - XOM has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 5.7% [2]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for XOM, as it has an Earnings ESP of -0.25% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3]. Factors Impacting Earnings - XOM anticipates a sequential decline in upstream earnings by $800 million to $1.2 billion due to lower liquid prices [5]. - The average WTI spot prices for the last quarter were significantly lower than the previous quarter, which may have negatively impacted upstream operations [7]. - Natural gas prices could either increase upstream earnings by $100 million or decrease them by $300 million [8]. Price Performance and Valuation - XOM's stock has increased by 25.9% over the past year, outperforming BP and Chevron [9]. - The current EV/EBITDA ratio for XOM is 8.84, which is above the industry average of 5.43, indicating a premium valuation [11]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the challenges posed by lower crude prices, XOM's long-term outlook remains positive due to its strong presence in the Permian Basin and offshore Guyana, where it has made significant discoveries [14][15]. - The company employs advanced technologies to enhance well recoveries, which could mitigate some impacts of low crude prices [14]. Status of Competitors - Chevron (CVX) and BP are also set to report their fourth-quarter earnings soon, with CVX having a negative Earnings ESP and BP showing a positive outlook [16][17].

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Core Insights - Air quality is deteriorating globally due to rising emissions from transportation, heavy industry, and urbanization, leading to a focus on cleaner fuels and sustainable technologies [1] - Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is expanding its carbon capture and storage (CCS) operations along the U.S. Gulf Coast as part of its Low-Carbon Business strategy [1][8] Group 1: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Initiatives - XOM plans to launch multiple CCS projects in Texas and Louisiana by 2026, in partnership with Linde and Nucor [2][8] - The company aims to supply electricity for data centers using natural gas while capturing carbon emissions, with a decision on a low-carbon data center expected by the end of 2026 [3][8] Group 2: Industry Comparisons - Other energy companies like Chevron (CVX) and BP are also investing in low-carbon initiatives, with BP operating CCS facilities in the U.K. and CVX having major projects in Australia [4] - Chevron has injected over 11 million tons of CO2 into underground storage by November 2025 [4] Group 3: Financial Performance - XOM's shares have increased by 24.8% over the past year, outperforming the industry average of 17.2% [5] - The company's trailing 12-month enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) is 8.71X, higher than the industry average of 5.43X [6]

Core Viewpoint - ExxonMobil's stock has increased over 10% since the beginning of 2026, driven by speculation about potential access to Venezuela's oil reserves and strong production in Guyana and the Permian Basin, despite underlying concerns about its financial health and operating performance [2][3][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - ExxonMobil's stock has risen more than 10% since early January 2026, largely due to geopolitical speculation regarding Venezuela's oil market [2]. - The stock reached a high of $134.97 on January 23, 2026, following a significant recovery from previous downturns [12]. Group 2: Financial Performance - ExxonMobil's revenue has declined at an average rate of -5.6% over the past three years, with a recent decrease from $340 billion to $325 billion in the last 12 months, and a quarterly revenue drop of -5.1% to $83 billion [6]. - The company's operating income over the last 12 months was $36 billion, with an operating margin of 11.0% and a cash flow margin of 15.9%, generating nearly $52 billion in operating cash flow [7]. Group 3: Valuation and Profitability - The stock's valuation appears moderate, but it does not reflect the underlying concerns regarding ExxonMobil's operating performance and financial health [4][5]. - The company has a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 7.2% with total debt standing at $42 billion against a market capitalization of $578 billion [11]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings - Analyst ratings have been predominantly "Buy," with raised price targets based on resilient free cash flow, contributing to the bullish market sentiment [3]. - Despite the positive market sentiment, a comprehensive assessment suggests it may be an opportune moment to sell due to the unattractive risk-reward profile [3][4].

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Core Insights - Kazakhstan's Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov has urged ExxonMobil to expedite efforts to address an extended outage at the Tengiz oilfield [1] Group 1: Company Actions - ExxonMobil is being called upon to accelerate its work related to the Tengiz oilfield, which is currently experiencing an extended outage [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The meeting between Kazakhstan's Prime Minister and ExxonMobil's Vice President highlights the importance of the Tengiz oilfield to both the local economy and ExxonMobil's operations in the region [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the energy sector, particularly natural gas and nuclear power, amid a global CAPEX upcycle driven by increasing electricity demand from AI, multi-shoring, and electrification [1][2][3][8]. Core Insights - **Electricity Demand Growth**: Global electricity demand is expected to rise significantly, with projections indicating it will exceed 32% of final energy consumption by 2050, up from 20% in 2023 [8]. - **CAPEX Projections**: A bottom-up analysis estimates a total of US$1,800 billion in global CAPEX from 2025 to 2030, focusing on offshore oil and gas exploration and production (E&P), LNG terminals, and gas-fired and nuclear power plants [2][7]. - **Industry Trends**: Four key trends identified include: 1. Consolidation in the oil and gas EPC and service market, leading to concentration among upstream equipment and parts manufacturers. 2. Outsourcing of production processes by EPC and service providers to suppliers. 3. Demand for higher quality advanced metal parts due to rising applications in deep-sea oil and gas, LNG terminals, and nuclear power plants. 4. Increased global competitiveness of Chinese equipment and parts suppliers [3][7][88]. Investment Opportunities - **Recommended Stocks**: The report initiates coverage on Neway and Develop with Buy ratings, and also recommends Yingliu, Jereh, and Sinoseal as potential beneficiaries of the CAPEX upcycle [1][3][7]. - **Market Mispricing**: The market may be underestimating the investment implications of the current natural gas and nuclear upcycle for China's upstream equipment and component manufacturers [7]. Financial Metrics of Recommended Stocks - **Neway Valve (603699.SH)**: Market cap of US$6.276 billion, expected PE of 22, with 61% overseas sales and a projected EPS CAGR of 28% from 2025 to 2027 [4]. - **Develop (688377.SH)**: Market cap of US$1.126 billion, expected PE of 37, with 62% overseas sales and a projected EPS CAGR of 51% [4]. - **Yingliu (603308.SH)**: Market cap of US$5.317 billion, expected PE of 54, with 47% overseas sales and a projected EPS CAGR of 54% [4]. - **Jereh Oil Field (002353.SZ)**: Market cap of US$12.801 billion, expected PE of 24, with 45% overseas sales and a projected EPS CAGR of 21% [4]. - **Sinoseal (300470.SZ)**: Market cap of US$5.337 billion, expected PE of 31, with 10% overseas sales and a projected EPS CAGR of 33% [4]. Additional Insights - **Natural Gas and Nuclear Power**: Both sectors are expected to benefit from stable electricity generation capabilities, with natural gas producing countries ramping up exploration and production, particularly offshore [2][20]. - **Technological Advancements**: The report highlights advancements in production technology that have significantly lowered the break-even costs for offshore oil E&P, enhancing the attractiveness of investments in this area [36][49]. - **Nuclear Power Renaissance**: There is a noted global renaissance in nuclear fission power, particularly in China, with expectations of accelerated approvals and construction of nuclear projects [65][66]. Conclusion - The energy sector, particularly natural gas and nuclear power, presents substantial investment opportunities driven by increasing electricity demand and significant CAPEX growth. Chinese manufacturers with strong overseas exposure and advanced manufacturing capabilities are well-positioned to benefit from these trends [1][7][8].

Summary of the Conference Call on Oil & Gas Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Asia-Pacific Oil & Gas** industry, particularly discussing oil inventories and geopolitical factors affecting the market [1][7]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **OECD Inventories**: - OECD commercial inventories increased by **7 million barrels (MMbls)** in November, reaching **2,838 MMbls**, which provides a **60 days demand cover** [2][37]. - A net draw of **23 MMbls** was observed in 4Q, contrasting with IEA's estimates of a **2.7 MMbls/d** oversupply [2]. 2. **Global Inventory Trends**: - Global inventories rose by **66 MMbls month-over-month**, totaling **6,449 MMbls** in November, with non-OECD inventories contributing significantly [3]. - China’s inventories increased by **3 MMbls** in November, indicating ongoing stockpiling [3]. 3. **Supply and Demand Forecast**: - Global oil demand is projected to grow by nearly **1.0 MMbls/d** to **105 MMbls/d**, with non-OECD Asia being the largest contributor [4]. - Non-OPEC supply growth is expected to outpace demand growth, leading to continued inventory builds through **2026** [4][7]. 4. **OPEC Production Dynamics**: - Despite increased OPEC supply, the call on OPEC crude is anticipated to decline to **25.8 MMbls** in 2026, suggesting a need for production cuts rather than increases [5]. - The unwinding of OPEC production cuts is expected to exacerbate market oversupply, particularly in the first half of the year [5]. 5. **Investment Implications**: - The IEA report indicates an oversupplied oil market, with non-OPEC supply growth outpacing demand, leading to significant inventory gains [7]. - The risk-reward scenario for investors is shifting favorably as oil prices are currently below the marginal cost of **$70/bbl**, suggesting potential for price recovery [7]. 6. **Valuation Comparisons**: - A comparison of major oil companies shows varying P/E ratios, with PetroChina at **8.8**, Sinopec at **11.4**, and CNOOC at **7.2** for 2026 metrics [8]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Risks**: The potential for geopolitical disruptions, particularly involving Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, could impact supply dynamics unexpectedly [7]. - **Long-term Price Outlook**: Oil prices are expected to average just below **$65/bbl** in 2026 based on inventory forecasts, indicating a challenging environment for producers [25]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the oil and gas industry, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region.