Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is showing signs of potential recession, with the Atlanta Federal Reserve predicting a 2.1% decline in Q1 GDP after earlier forecasts of over 2% growth [1] Walmart - Walmart is positioned as a top defensive stock, having gained 2% during the Covid recession while the S&P 500 lost 25%, and rose 12% during the Great Recession of 2008-2009 [2][3] - The company benefits from its size and scale, providing significant buying power that allows it to be a price leader during economic downturns [4] - Walmart's extensive reach means 90% of the U.S. population lives within 10 miles of a store, which supports its Walmart+ membership growth, particularly among wealthier consumers [5] - Upper-income households, defined as those earning $100,000 or more, have been a key growth driver for Walmart, potentially increasing their patronage during a recession [6] - Walmart is also expanding its advertising and online marketplace businesses, enhancing fulfillment capabilities for third-party merchants [7] Philip Morris International - Philip Morris International's traditional cigarette business remains strong, with modest volume growth and strong pricing power, particularly in international markets [8] - The company's smokeless products, such as Zyn and IQOS, are significant growth drivers, with Zyn projected to see volume growth of 34% to 41% this year [9] - IQOS has also experienced solid growth, with plans for broader rollout in the U.S. pending FDA approval [10] - Zyn and IQOS offer better unit economics compared to traditional cigarettes, with Zyn's contribution level being six times greater and IQOS's twice as good [11] - The addictive nature of Philip Morris' products makes them resilient during economic downturns, and the company offers a 3.5% dividend yield, making it an attractive growth stock in a defensive industry [12]

Core Viewpoint - Walmart's stock has experienced significant volatility, with a 19% decline from its all-time high due to muted guidance and economic concerns [1][5][8] Group 1: Company Performance - In fiscal 2025, Walmart's net sales increased by 5.6% year-over-year on a constant currency basis, and adjusted EPS rose by 13.1% to $2.51, exceeding initial targets [3][7] - The e-commerce segment saw a 20% sales increase in the fourth quarter, contributing significantly to comparable store sales growth, indicating improved competitiveness against Amazon [4][7] Group 2: Future Guidance - For fiscal 2026, Walmart expects net sales growth of 3% to 4%, a slowdown compared to the previous year [5][7] - The EPS target for fiscal 2026 is set between $2.50 and $2.60, which is a modest increase from fiscal 2025 and below analyst consensus of $2.76 [6][7] Group 3: Market Context - The stock's valuation has decreased from nearly 40 times its consensus fiscal 2026 EPS to around 32, still slightly above its five-year average P/E ratio of 31 [8] - Economic uncertainties, including trade tariffs and mixed labor market indicators, may impact Walmart's supply chain and pricing strategy, adding risk to earnings [7][8] Group 4: Investment Outlook - Walmart is expected to remain volatile as the global economic conditions evolve, but it is well-positioned to reward shareholders over the long term [9]

Economic Environment - The US effective tariff rate increase continues to create uncertainty in the market, with unclear long-term implications from the Trump administration [1] - The Volatility Index remains in the 20s, Treasury yields are fluctuating, and stock prices are nearing correction territory [2] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence has declined, with cautionary guidance from companies during Q4 earnings calls [4] - The Johnson Redbook Index indicates steady year-over-year same-store sales growth in the 4% to 7% range since late 2023 [5] - Bank of America reported a 2.4% annualized increase in consumer spending for February 2025 [5] Corporate Performance - Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, and Southwest Airlines have lowered their earnings projections due to weaker travel demand [5][6] - Walmart reported strong Q4 earnings but provided guidance below market expectations, leading to a significant drop in its share price [6] - Lululemon is set to report Q4 earnings, with expectations of net revenue between $3.56 billion and $3.58 billion, reflecting an 11% to 12% increase year-over-year [11] Market Trends - Lululemon's stock has decreased from $423 to just above $325, mirroring broader retail sector weaknesses [10] - Disney's upcoming annual shareholder meeting is anticipated to provide insights into its streaming service and theme park performance, amid a 10% year-to-date stock decline [14][15] Future Outlook - The upcoming earnings reports from Lululemon and Disney are expected to shed light on consumer spending trends and overall economic health [16]

Core Viewpoint - Despite current economic challenges such as tariffs and inflation, a long-term investment perspective is essential, particularly in strong businesses like Walmart that can weather short-term fluctuations [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Walmart has established itself as a successful retailer with a focus on cost containment, allowing it to offer low prices to customers [3]. - The company generated over $680 billion in revenue for the latest fiscal year, reflecting a 5.6% increase after adjusting for foreign currency effects, with an adjusted operating profit of $29.7 billion, up 9.7% [4]. Group 2: Market Position and Growth - Walmart's ultra-low prices attract a large customer base, particularly during economic downturns, positioning the company for future growth [5]. - In the fourth quarter, same-store sales in the U.S. increased by 4.6%, with over half of this growth attributed to higher customer traffic, indicating market share gains and appeal to higher-income demographics [6][7]. Group 3: Future Investments - The management is committed to future growth, planning to invest 3% to 3.5% of sales in capital expenditures, which translates to a significant amount given sales nearing $700 billion [8]. - Walmart is enhancing consumer experience through technology investments, including online ordering, in-store pickup, and same-day delivery options [8]. Group 4: Additional Revenue Streams - The company has launched Walmart+, a subscription service offering benefits like free shipping and discounted gas, which could enhance customer loyalty and revenue [9]. - Walmart's advertising business, although currently less than 1% of annual revenue, grew by 27% last year and has the potential to become a significant revenue contributor in the future [10]. Group 5: Investment Considerations - Walmart's combination of low prices, convenience, and a proactive management team makes it an attractive long-term investment, with shares having gained nearly 39% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500 by about 20 percentage points [11]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for Walmart is 35, compared to 28 for the S&P 500, indicating high investor expectations [11].

Core Insights - Klarna has announced a partnership with Walmart to exclusively provide buy now, pay later loans, taking over from rival Affirm [1] - Affirm's stock fell by 8% following the news, indicating market reaction to the competitive shift [2] - Klarna reported a net profit of $21 million in 2024, a significant recovery from a loss of $244 million in 2023 [2] Company Developments - Klarna will begin providing loans to Walmart customers through OnePay later this year [1] - Affirm, which focuses on the U.S. market, reported $80 million in GAAP net income [2] - Klarna's global reach is expanding, with the U.S. and Germany being its largest markets [4] Market Impact - Walmart's status as the world's largest retailer, with $441.8 billion in U.S. revenue last year, enhances Klarna's market presence [4] - A mere 5% of Walmart's U.S. volume could increase Klarna's total gross merchandise value (GMV) by 28% [5]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 is down 5.9% year to date, while the Nasdaq Composite is in correction, down over 10% from a recent high [1] - Despite broader market declines, the healthcare sector, utilities, and consumer staples have posted year-to-date gains [1] Healthcare Sector - The Vanguard Health Care ETF has gained 4.5% this year, with a low expense ratio of 0.09% and a minimum investment of $1 [3] - The healthcare sector is generally considered safe due to consistent demand for healthcare products and services, which are less affected by economic cycles [4] - Eli Lilly has significantly influenced the sector, with a market cap of $719 billion and a 10.5% weighting in the Vanguard Health Care ETF, raising concerns about the sector's safety due to its reliance on discretionary products [5] - The Vanguard Health Care ETF has a yield of 1.4% and a P/E ratio of 31.6, indicating a more expensive valuation compared to the S&P 500 [6] Utilities Sector - The Vanguard Utilities ETF yields 2.9% and has a P/E ratio of 20.2, making it attractive for passive income and value investors [7] - Over 61% of the fund is invested in electric utilities, which are regulated and provide predictable cash flows, although they have lower growth prospects [8] - The utility sector is considered one of the safest in the stock market, with minimal exposure to tariffs, but it tends to trade at a discount to the S&P 500 due to its low growth potential [9] Consumer Staples Sector - The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF includes major retailers and everyday product manufacturers, which tend to perform well during economic downturns [10] - The sector benefits from steady growth driven by population increases and global consumption, with companies able to pass on higher costs to consumers [11] - Costco and Walmart, which make up over a quarter of the Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF, have recently experienced stock pullbacks despite their strong market positions [12] - The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF has a yield of 2.1% and a P/E ratio of 24.8, offering higher passive income potential compared to the S&P 500 [13] Investment Strategy - Safe sectors like healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples can provide stability in a diversified portfolio, reducing overall volatility [14] - Over-concentration in high-growth stocks can lead to increased portfolio risk, making it beneficial to include safer dividend stocks or ETFs [15]

Core Insights - Klarna has secured an exclusive partnership with Walmart to provide buy now, pay later (BNPL) loans, taking this opportunity from its competitor Affirm [1][3] - The partnership will utilize Walmart's fintech startup OnePay for user experience, while Klarna will manage loan underwriting with terms ranging from 3 to 36 months and interest rates between 10% and 36% [2] - This collaboration is set to launch in the coming weeks and aims to be the sole BNPL option for Walmart by the end of the year [2] Company Developments - Klarna is preparing for a highly-anticipated IPO in the U.S., following a significant drop in its private market valuation from $46 billion in 2021 to approximately $15 billion in 2023 [4][5] - The company has returned to profitability in 2023 and is leveraging generative AI to reduce costs and workforce [5] - Affirm, on the other hand, has seen its stock decline by 18% this year, and the loss of the Walmart partnership is viewed as a setback for the company [6] Competitive Landscape - The partnership intensifies the competition between Klarna and Affirm, with Klarna having a more global reach compared to Affirm's U.S.-centric focus [3] - Affirm has emphasized its partnerships with major retailers as crucial for driving purchase volumes, with Walmart previously being one of its key partnerships [7]

Group 1: Nvidia and AI Market - Nvidia's GPU Technology Conference (GTC) is anticipated to provide positive updates on demand and production, potentially attracting investors back to tech stocks [2][3] - The iShares Future AI & Tech ETF (ARTY) has seen a decline of 18% from its recent market high, indicating a bearish trend in the AI sector [3] - BofA analyst Vivek Arya expects updates on Nvidia's pipeline, particularly the Blackwell Ultra and Rubin, and its competitive position in China [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Projections - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to face questions regarding the impact of tariffs on growth and inflation during his upcoming press conference [6][7] - Economists from Wells Fargo predict a modest downgrade to economic projections for 2025, with real GDP growth expected to dip below 2.0% [10] - The latest consumer sentiment report shows a rise in inflation expectations, with year-ahead expectations increasing to 4.9% from 4.3% [8] Group 3: Earnings Reports and Market Sentiment - FedEx is projected to report earnings of $4.67 per share on revenue of $21.91 billion, with expectations of improved efficiency and higher margins in FY26 [11] - Other companies reporting earnings include KE Holdings, XPeng, Tencent Music, and ZTO Express, indicating a busy earnings calendar [11][12] - Bill Gross comments on the current market volatility and the potential impact of tariffs on global economies, suggesting a bearish outlook [15][16]

Company Overview - Shopify has been a public company for nearly 10 years, and an initial investment of $10,000 would now be worth over $350,000 [1] - The company provides infrastructure for merchants to reach customers digitally, rather than selling products directly [1] Market Position - Shopify holds 30% of the U.S. e-commerce market, making it the largest platform in the country and the fourth largest globally [2] - In Q4, Shopify processed over $94 billion in gross merchandise volume (GMV), showcasing its significant role in the e-commerce landscape [3] Growth and Profitability - Shopify has demonstrated robust growth, with a 31% year-over-year revenue increase in Q4 and a 62% increase in operating income [6] - The company is expected to benefit from the overall growth of e-commerce, projected to reach 21.4% of retail sales by 2029, up from 17.3% last year [7] Strategic Expansion - Shopify is expanding its services to target physical stores and is appealing to large companies needing specific tools [5] - The company is enhancing its financial solutions, with its Shop Pay digital payments service gaining traction [8] Investment Potential - While Shopify may not make investors millionaires on its own if purchased today, it offers significant potential as a growth stock within a diversified portfolio [9][10]

Group 1 - The current stock market correction has led to Amazon's stock price dropping nearly 20% from its all-time high, making it one of the cheapest valuations based on its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio in two decades [1][7] - Amazon's e-commerce platform remains the largest revenue source, with Q4 sales growing by 7% to $75.6 billion, but it is the slowest-growing segment and has low profit margins [2] - The advertising and Amazon Web Services (AWS) units are the primary profit drivers for Amazon, with Q4 advertising revenue rising 18% year over year to $17.3 billion, indicating a highly profitable business [3][4] Group 2 - AWS had an operating margin of 37% in Q4, significantly higher than Amazon's overall operating margin of 11.3%, contributing 58% of the company's operating profits for the full year [5] - Even in the event of an economic downturn, AWS is expected to be less affected compared to consumer-focused units, making it a more stable investment [6] - Analyst Nat Schindler from Scotiabank set a 12-month price target of $306 for Amazon's stock, suggesting a potential gain of over 50% from the current price, indicating a favorable buying opportunity [9]