日本央行：部分非制造业企业表达了对物价上涨对消费产生负面影响、抑制入境游客需求的担忧。企业认为美国贸易政策的不确定性正在消退，美国关税的冲击小于预期，成本传导顺畅，以及人工智能和芯片需求强劲，这些都是提振企业情绪的积极因素。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points during its upcoming policy meeting, which could significantly impact global risk assets, particularly Bitcoin [1][2]. Group 1: BOJ Rate Hike Expectations - Prediction markets indicate a 98% probability of a BOJ rate hike, with only a 2% chance of maintaining current rates [2]. - If the rate hike occurs, Japan's policy rate will increase to 75 basis points, a level not seen in nearly two decades [3]. Group 2: Impact on Bitcoin - Analysts express concern that the anticipated rate hike is negative for Bitcoin, which is currently trading below the $90,000 psychological level [3]. - Historical data shows that Bitcoin has dropped significantly following previous BOJ rate hikes, with declines of 20-25% observed after such events [8]. Group 3: Yen Carry Trade Dynamics - The yen carry trade, where institutions borrow yen at low rates to invest in global assets, is under threat due to rising Japanese bond yields [4]. - If yields continue to rise, leveraged positions funded in yen may be unwound, leading to forced selling of risk assets, including Bitcoin [5]. Group 4: Current Market Sentiment - Bitcoin is currently trading at $88,956, down 1.16% in the last 24 hours, with traders focusing on potential volatility due to the BOJ's historical impact on the cryptocurrency [6][7]. - Analysts warn that if the historical pattern holds, Bitcoin could drop below $70,000 following the expected rate hike [8].

Group 1: Bank of Japan Interest Rate Hike - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% on December 19, marking the first increase since January and the highest level in approximately 30 years [1] - The rate hike is anticipated to have implications for the yen carry trade, potentially affecting Bitcoin (BTC) through the equities channel [3][4] Group 2: Impact on Global Markets and Cryptocurrency - Historically, developments in Japan have been bearish for Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market, with a stronger yen typically exerting downside pressure on Bitcoin [2] - The last BoJ rate hike in July 2024 led to a significant decline in Bitcoin prices, illustrating the potential for risk aversion in stocks and cryptocurrencies following the upcoming hike [4] Group 3: Current Market Conditions - The yen is currently trading near 156 against the U.S. dollar, slightly stronger than its late November peak, indicating a shift in market sentiment [3] - Japanese bond yields have risen to multi-decade highs, suggesting that the upcoming rate hike reflects official rates aligning with market conditions [6] Group 4: Speculative Positioning and Fiscal Concerns - Speculators currently hold net long positions in the yen, which may reduce the likelihood of a sharp market reaction to the BoJ's rate hike [5] - Japan's fiscal situation, characterized by a debt-to-GDP ratio of 240%, raises concerns about potential market volatility in the coming year [7][8]

The Bank of Japan is moving to raise its policy rate at the Dec. 18-19 monetary policy meeting with a 25-basis-point increase from 0.5% to 0.75% emerging as the leading option, Nikkei has learned. This would be the first hike since January 2025 and will lead to a level not seen since 1995. https://t.co/c0llUnfDKD ...

The Bank of Japan will raise its policy interest rate next week, resuming the hiking cycle for the first time since January, according to a Bloomberg survey of BOJ watchers https://t.co/XlGhrd3wQr ...

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s policy path may include as many as four rate increases by 2027, with three more coming after a widely anticipated move next week, according to a former executive director https://t.co/vokzZNWahj ...

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank is getting closer to attaining its inflation target https://t.co/NY84dCOBcs ...

Economic Resilience - Bank of Japan indicates the economy withstood President Trump's tariffs [1]

Speculation is growing that the Bank of Japan is on track to raise interest rates this month but market participants are still betting that the yen will weaken against the dollar https://t.co/FkvZUUUKt3 ...

The Bank of Japan is preparing to raise interest rates at its December policy meeting, a shift that would lift the country’s benchmark rate to its highest level since 1995 and potentially reverberate through global risk markets, including crypto. People familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that policymakers are leaning toward a 25-basis-point hike to 0.75% at the Dec. 19 meeting, contingent on no major shock to global markets or Japan’s domestic outlook. The yen strengthened after the report, climbing ...