The dollar index (DXY00) on Friday rose by +0.15%.  The dollar moved higher on Friday due to weakness in the euro and yen, which both fell to 1.5-week lows against the dollar.  Also, higher T-note yields on Friday strengthened the dollar's interest rate differentials.  Strength in stocks on Friday curbed liquidity demand for the dollar and capped its gains. The US Dec S&P manufacturing PMI was kept unrevised at 51.8, right on expectations. More News from Barchart The markets are discounting the odds at ...

The dollar index (DXY00) on Monday rose slightly by +0.02%.  The dollar found support on Monday as stock market weakness boosted some liquidity demand for the dollar.  Also, Monday's stronger-than-expected Nov pending home sales report was supportive of the dollar. The dollar fell from its best level after the Dec Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook of general business activity unexpectedly declined. More News from Barchart The markets are discounting the odds at 16% for a -25 bp rate cut at the FOMC's n ...

There may be some progress on a Ukraine-Russia peace deal as Ukrainian President Zelensky said he expects to meet with President Trump on Sunday in Florida. Mr. Zelensky said a 20-point peace plan is 90% ready, but it depends on the meeting with Mr. Trump and can't be finalized without input from Russia and Europe. Russia reportedly said that the 20-point peace plan fails to answer many questions.The US Coast Guard forced the sanctioned oil tanker, Bella 1, to turn away from Venezuela and move out into the ...

Nov US industrial production fell -0.1% m/m, slightly weaker than market expectations of +0.1%. Nov manufacturing production fell -0.4% m/m, weaker than market expectations of +0.1%.Oct durable goods orders fell -2.2% m/m, which was weaker than expectations of -1.5%. Oct durable goods orders ex-transportation rose +0.2% m/m, slightly weaker than market expectations of +0.3%. Oct core capital goods orders (ex transportation and defense), a proxy for capital spending, rose +0.5% m/m, which was slightly strong ...

Group 1 - The Japanese yen continues to weaken, surprising analysts who expected a more stable performance [1][2] - The Bank of Japan's cautious stance is noted, with the recent press conference being perceived as the most hawkish it could be [2] - Market reactions to the dollar-yen spike indicate a desire to sell yen, with unexpected price movements observed [3][4] Group 2 - There is skepticism regarding the recent US CPI print, with some economists labeling it as unreliable [5] - Despite a soft inflation report, market yields did not react significantly, and equities showed a rebound, indicating a divergence in trader sentiment [6][7] - The bond market largely ignored the inflation data, suggesting a disconnect between different asset classes [8] Group 3 - The market is described as technically fragile, with a bullish positioning that may face challenges ahead [9] - Expectations for stock markets to reach new record highs in 2026 are noted, driven by structural tailwinds, but risks remain [10] - The performance of digital asset treasury companies is declining, impacting retail sentiment and potentially affecting favored stocks [10][11]

EUR/USD (^EURUSD) on Wednesday fell by -0.04%. The euro was under pressure on Wednesday from a stronger dollar. The euro also moved lower after Wednesday’s Eurozone economic news showed that Nov CPI was revised lower and Q3 labor costs posted their smallest increase in three years, both of which are dovish for ECB policy. In addition, Wednesday’s unexpected decline in the German Dec IFO business conditions survey to a 7-month low was bearish for the euro.The markets are discounting a 24% chance that the FOM ...

The dollar index (DXY00) today is up by +0.17%.  The dollar is moving higher today due to weakness in GBP/USD after UK November consumer prices rose less than expected.  Also, weakness in the yen today is positive for the dollar as Japanese fiscal concerns weigh on the yen.  The dollar fell back from its best level on dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller, who said the Fed can keep cutting rates as interest rates are still 50-100 bp above neutral. The dollar is also under pressure as the Fed boosts li ...

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise interest rates for the first time since January, increasing the policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% from 0.50%, according to Nikkei. The decision, which is expected on Dec. 19, would take Japanese interest rates to their highest level in roughly 30 years. The broader impact on global markets remains uncertain; however, developments in Japan have historically been bearish for bitcoin (BTC) and the wider cryptocurrency market. A stronger yen has typically co ...

The FOMC raised its 2025 GDP estimate to 1.7% from 1.6% in September and raised its 2026 GDP estimate to 2.3% from 1.8% in September. The FOMC cut its 2025 core PCE price estimate to 3.0% from 3.1% in September and cut its 2026 core PCE price estimate to 2.5% from 2.6% in September.The Fed's "dot plot" of interest rate projections shows the median forecast for the fed funds rate is 3.375% for the end of 2026, implying one 25 bp rate cut next year, unchanged from September.The FOMC, as expected, cut the fed ...

Markets widely expect a quarter point reduction when the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee meets on December 9-10, and a focus will be on any signals about how much additional easing lies ahead. The Traders are pricing around 86% odds of Fed cut next Wednesday, and potentially 2-3 more reductions next year, LSEG data showed. Fed officials have been carefully watching the labour market to determine whether the Live Events Data overnight showed the number of Americans filing new applications for ...