Growing fiscal concerns in some of the world’s biggest economies are adding momentum to a so-called “debasement trade,” as investors flock to the perceived safety of Bitcoin, gold and silver while pulling away from major currencies. The yen tumbled on Monday as pro-stimulus lawmaker Sanae Takaichi was set to become Japan’s next prime minister. French bond spreads blew out and the euro slid after the prime minister resigned, hurling the country into another political crisis. The dollar, which has weakene ...

After news of her victory emerged, the yen weakened above 150 against the dollar DXY+0.71% and Japanese government bonds TMBMKJP-10Y1.680% edged lower, although the Nikkei 225 NIY00+4.81% equity index surged almost 5% to a record high. ...

Group 1 - The U.S. dollar showed resilience against the Vietnamese dong, trading at VND26,446 at Vietcombank and VND26,620 in the informal market, despite a one-week low against major currencies [1] - The dollar index, measuring the currency against six major peers, was recorded at 97.814, having dipped to a low of 97.633, indicating a notable decline since last Wednesday [2] - The euro edged up to $1.1738, following a rise to $1.1762, while the dollar remained flat at 147.92 yen after a 1.2% drop over the previous three days [3] Group 2 - Political developments regarding the U.S. government shutdown could lead to a further decline in the dollar, as weak economic data may exacerbate the situation [4] - Market attention is shifting towards private-sector indicators due to the lack of official economic data, with heightened responsiveness expected as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision approaches on October 29 [3]

By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) -What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets With Washington closed after Tuesday's congressional impasse, markets are left in a bit of quandary about how to interpret the hiatus and which economic data to focus on if this week's key jobs reports are furloughed along with government workers. The only thing investors have to go on is how markets behaved during previous closures, pretty nonchalantly for the most part and ...

The dollar weakened and Treasury yields dipped ahead a raft of US jobs data this week which could cement the view that the Federal Reserve will keep cutting interest rates this year. Bloomberg’s gauge of the greenback fell 0.2% on Monday, dropping for a second day. The looming risk of a US government shutdown also weighed on sentiment, given that a temporary stop to government services would delay economic data releases including non-farm payrolls due on Friday, raising uncertainties around the outlook fo ...

The dollar index (DXY00) today fell from a 1-week high and is down by -0.12%.  The dollar is under pressure on the outlook for easier Fed policy, with the FOMC expected to cut interest rates by another 50 bp this year.  The dollar found support today on hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who said they see limited room for additional Fed interest rate cuts. The dollar is also being undercut by concerns over Fed independence, which could p ...

Currency Market Overview - Currency movements in early Asia were subdued following a volatile week influenced by rate decisions from the Fed, Bank of England (BoE), and Bank of Japan (BOJ) [1] - The yen decreased by 0.16% to 148.22 per dollar, reversing some gains after a hawkish shift in BOJ rhetoric suggested a potential near-term rate hike [1] - The British pound fell to a two-week low of $1.3458, impacted by increased UK public borrowing and a forecast for the BoE's next rate cut pushed to 2026 [1][3] Federal Reserve Insights - The dollar continued its rebound from a previous decline, rising slightly to 97.75 against a basket of currencies [4] - Approximately 10 Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, are scheduled to speak this week, with market participants keenly observing their insights on the economy and Fed independence [5] - New Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who recently dissented in favor of a 50-basis-point rate cut, is expected to provide a detailed argument regarding Fed independence in an upcoming speech [6][9] Asian Market Developments - China maintained its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive month in September, aligning with market expectations [7][9] - The offshore yuan remained stable, slightly increasing by 0.06% to 7.1151 per dollar following the rate decision [7][9]

Hedge funds in the currency derivatives markets are bearish on Japan’s yen for the first time in nearly four months ahead of upper house elections Sunday https://t.co/N0hvAblSfe ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a tactical Neutral (N) rating for equities over a 3-month horizon and an Overweight (OW) rating for equities over a 12-month horizon [5][9]. Core Insights - The current market sentiment has shifted towards a 'Goldilocks' narrative, characterized by a resilient macro backdrop and expectations of dovish monetary policy, despite potential headwinds from tariffs and a mixed growth/inflation outlook [4][15]. - The report identifies three potential risks ('bears') for the second half of the year: a significant negative growth shock, a large rate shock affecting long-duration bonds, and a deepening bear market for the Dollar [5][62]. - There is an emphasis on diversification across asset classes and regions, with specific recommendations for shorter-duration bonds, low volatility stocks, infrastructure, Gold, financials, and selective emerging market exposure [5][63]. Summary by Sections Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite - The Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) has rebounded to somewhat bullish levels after a rapid re-risking phase, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets [4][27]. - Despite the bullish sentiment, the report warns of elevated valuations and a modestly negative asymmetry for equities in the near term, suggesting a higher probability of drawdowns compared to rallies [47][52]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The report recommends a tactical asset allocation of Overweight in cash and equities, Neutral in bonds and credit, and Underweight in commodities for the next 3 months [5][7]. - For the 12-month horizon, the strategy remains Overweight in equities and Neutral in cash, credit, and bonds, while continuing to Underweight commodities [5][7]. Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to face challenges in the second half of the year, with a deteriorating growth/inflation mix primarily driven by tariff impacts [15][67]. - The report highlights that while hard data has shown some negative surprises, the labor market remains resilient, and inflation pressures have not significantly materialized [19][67]. Sector and Asset Class Insights - The report suggests that equities may face headwinds from potential tariff impacts and a slowdown in corporate profitability, particularly in the US [66][71]. - Gold is highlighted as a key safe haven asset, with price forecasts raised to $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, supported by strong central bank buying [13][71]. Diversification Opportunities - The report emphasizes the importance of diversification in multi-asset portfolios, particularly in light of the current market dynamics and potential risks [58][62]. - Specific diversification strategies include focusing on shorter-duration bonds, quality stocks, and safe-haven assets like Gold and the Swiss Franc [71][82].

USD Weakness & Potential Drivers - The market is questioning whether USD weakness is a temporary pullback or a structural shift away from the USD [1] - Since President Trump took office, the dollar is down 10% versus the Euro and down against every major currency [2] - A weaker USD could be inflationary and further expand deficits, potentially creating a vicious cycle [3] - Intensifying trade wars and the US deficit situation could further stress the USD [5] Alternative Currencies & Assets - Uncertainty surrounds European growth prospects [6] - Gold has seen increased investment as a potential alternative to the USD [6][8] - Euro is the second most traded currency globally, and Yen are also considered alternatives [8] - The dollar accounts for 88% of all trades globally, making a true alternative difficult to establish [8] Global Market Impact - "Sell America" trade is in focus, with potential risks of a vicious cycle [4] - Surging currencies in Asia, such as Taiwan and South Korea, impact financial markets and the US economy due to global trade [4]