Core Insights - American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) reported fourth-quarter 2025 net operating earnings per share of $3.65, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 14.8% and reflecting a 17% year-over-year increase driven by underwriting income [1][2] Financial Performance - Total revenues for the quarter were $2 billion, a decrease of 2.7% year over year, primarily due to lower net investment income, and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.4% [3] - Net earned premiums declined 2.4% year over year to $1.81 billion, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.82 billion [3] - Net investment income fell 5.7% year over year to $183 million, below both the estimate of $192 million and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $196 million [4] - Total costs and expenses decreased 7.9% year over year to $1.7 billion, attributed to lower losses and expenses of managed investment entities, also lower than the estimate of $1.8 billion [4] Segment Analysis - The Specialty P&C Insurance segment generated $1.4 billion in net written premiums, down 1% year over year, with the Property & Transportation Group seeing a 2% decline to $398 million [5] - Specialty Casualty Group's net written premiums increased 3% year over year to $796 million, surpassing the estimate of $758 million, while Specialty Financial Group's premiums decreased 10% to $250 million, below the estimate of $291.8 million [6] - Underwriting profit for the Specialty P&C Insurance segment rose 41% year over year to $287 million, driven by the Property and Transportation Group, exceeding the estimate of $178.8 million [7] Catastrophe Impact - Catastrophe losses were $4 million in the quarter, significantly lower than the $21 million loss in the previous year, contributing to improved underwriting profit in the Property and Transportation Group [8] Profitability Metrics - The current combined ratio was 83.0%, up 230 basis points from the previous year's 80.7%, with results benefiting from favorable prior-year reserve development [9] - Pre-tax core operating earnings before income taxes for the P&C Insurance segment increased 16.4% year over year to $440 million [7] Shareholder Returns - AFG returned $707 million to shareholders in 2025, including $334 million in special dividends and $99 million in share repurchases, and declared a $1.50 special dividend payable on February 25, 2026 [10][13] Full-Year Overview - For the full year, net operating EPS was $10.29, down 4.3% year over year, with revenues decreasing 1.8% to $8.3 billion and net premiums written remaining flat at $7.1 billion [11] - The combined ratio improved by 20 basis points to 91% [11] Future Projections - AFG projects core operating EPS of $11 and a core operating ROE of approximately 18% for 2026, with net written premiums expected to grow by 3-5% and a combined ratio estimated at 92.5% [14]