We upgrade our view on China's hotel industry from In-Line to Attractive: We see a clear inflection in RevPAR dynamics. After several years of demand recovery being offset by aggressive supply additions, demand and supply growth are now converging, supporting a turn to positive RevPAR and a more durable up-cycle. • RevPAR declined ~9% cumulatively over the past two years and is now recovering at a ~2% pace. All three key drivers of RevPAR are now turning supportive: February 8, 2026 08:05 PM GMT Hong Kong/C ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Latin American (LatAm) market, particularly regarding investment opportunities and risks in the region's economies and industries for 2026 [4][9][14]. Core Insights - **Investment Shift**: There is a significant potential for growth in LatAm markets after years of underperformance. Countries that transition from consumption and leverage to investment are expected to see the highest growth. Mexico is noted for its early advantage in nearshoring, while Brazil presents the best risk-reward scenario [4][9]. - **Policy Changes**: A shift away from populism towards fiscal responsibility is observed across several LatAm countries, which could lead to a new earnings cycle and improve the risk-reward balance for equity investors [13][14][17]. - **Equity Performance**: Brazilian equities have risen approximately 53% year-to-date and could increase another 20% while still being at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10x. A policy shift could further reduce the cost of capital by 2-3 turns [9][20]. - **Investment Cycle**: The key to revitalizing LatAm economies is reigniting an investment cycle, which is essential for developing a new investment narrative. The current consumer cycle is seen as nearing its end, necessitating a focus on investment-led growth [18][20]. Country-Specific Insights - **Brazil**: Currently experiencing fiscal consolidation and policy confidence, with a focus on investment growth. The country is running out of fiscal road, and the investment narrative is crucial for future growth [18][20]. - **Mexico**: The USMCA negotiations are critical for the nearshoring narrative. The market has rallied significantly, but earnings growth remains muted, and the investment narrative is closely tied to USMCA developments [25][28]. - **Argentina**: Faces significant challenges with a weaker capital market but has potential for growth if an investment cycle can be established [4][9]. Risks and Challenges - **Consumer Cycle Limitations**: The consensus view suggests that the consumer cycle may be reaching its limits, and without meaningful fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, equities may continue to underperform [16][20]. - **USMCA Uncertainty**: The negotiations surrounding the USMCA are complex, and there is a material probability of a bear case scenario that could delay the nearshoring narrative and investment growth in Mexico [25][28][37]. - **Fintech Disruption**: In the banking sector, fintech companies are challenging traditional banks in Mexico, potentially leading to a significant reduction in profitability for incumbents if they are forced to raise deposit yields [87][97]. Investment Recommendations - **Equity Strategy**: The recommendation is to remain overweight in Brazil and Argentina, equal-weight in Mexico, and focus on sectors such as financial services, digitalization, energy, and nearshoring [23][70]. - **Cautious Approach**: A cautious stance is advised for agribusiness in Brazil due to current pressures on commodity prices and farmer margins, with a preference for selective exposure [74][80]. Conclusion - The LatAm market is at a pivotal point with potential for significant growth driven by policy shifts and investment cycles. However, challenges remain, particularly in the context of USMCA negotiations and the rise of fintech in the banking sector. Investors are encouraged to focus on sectors poised for growth while remaining cautious of the broader economic landscape [4][9][20][87].

Company Overview - Equinox Gold (EQX) is a multi-asset gold producer based in North America with operational mines located in Canada, the U.S., Nicaragua, and Brazil [1] Investment Philosophy - Mountain Valley Value Investments specializes in identifying undervalued companies with strong growth potential across various sectors [1] - The investment philosophy is focused on long-term value and buying at the right price, leveraging deep industry insights and rigorous analysis [1] - The aim is to uncover opportunities with the potential to deliver strong returns while highlighting risks that may impact the investment thesis [1]

Core Viewpoint - SSR Mining (SSRM) has shown significant stock performance, increasing approximately 80% since June and over 400% since a major incident in 2024, indicating strong investor confidence and potential growth in the mining sector [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - SSR Mining's stock has appreciated significantly, with an increase of around 80% since the last coverage in June and over 400% since a major accident in 2024, suggesting robust recovery and growth potential [1]. Group 2: Analyst Background - The analyst has over 10 years of experience researching various companies across multiple sectors, including commodities like oil, natural gas, gold, and copper, as well as technology and emerging market stocks, which enhances the credibility of the analysis [1]. - The analyst has transitioned from writing a personal blog to a value investing-focused YouTube channel, where extensive research on hundreds of companies has been conducted, particularly favoring metals and mining stocks [1].

Core Insights - Allied Gold (AAUC) is a multi-asset gold producer with operations in Africa, specifically in Cote d'Ivoire and Mali, and is recognized for having one of the fastest growth profiles among gold miners [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Allied Gold operates three mines in Africa, contributing to its rapid production growth [1] Group 2: Investment Philosophy - Mountain Valley Value Investments focuses on identifying undervalued companies with strong growth potential across various sectors, emphasizing long-term value and disciplined research [1]

Core Insights - Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) has strong fundamentals, record financials, and attractive jurisdictional diversification, but its current stock price reflects much of its growth potential [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Royal Gold, Inc. is highlighted for its strong fundamentals and record financials [1] - The company benefits from attractive jurisdictional diversification, which enhances its investment appeal [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - The analyst has over 10 years of experience researching companies across various sectors, including commodities and technology [1] - The analyst has researched over 1000 companies, providing a broad perspective on investment opportunities [1] - The analyst has transitioned from writing a blog to a value investing-focused YouTube channel, covering hundreds of companies [1]

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Hotel Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Hotel Sector** and insights from hotel experts with extensive experience in the industry [2][3]. Key Takeaways 1. **Supply-Demand Balance**: - China's hotel supply growth has been outpacing demand since 2024. However, it is expected that the supply-demand balance will be achieved during the second half of 2027 to 2028 [2][3]. 2. **Segment Performance**: - The midscale and upper-midscale segments are projected to outperform in the next five years due to rising franchisee enthusiasm and lower investment requirements compared to international brands [2][4]. 3. **Inbound Tourism vs. Business Demand**: - Inbound tourist growth has not significantly offset the declining demand for business meetings, which saw a **60% year-over-year decrease in 2024** [2][4]. 4. **Impact of OTAs**: - Hotel chains are focusing more on membership development and have lower take rates compared to Online Travel Agencies (OTAs). This may lead to a gradual slowdown in OTA growth [2][3]. 5. **Conversion of Office Buildings**: - The conversion of office buildings into mid-end hotels is driving rapid supply growth. The share of office building conversions has increased to **15% year-to-date from 3-5% in 2024** [3][4]. 6. **Investment Preferences**: - Limited and selective-service hotels with **100-150 rooms** and a capital expenditure (CAPEX) of within **Rmb200,000** are becoming more popular among franchisees due to lower investment and higher returns compared to international brands [4]. 7. **Challenges for High-End Brands**: - Chinese hotel groups face challenges in developing high-end brands, including insufficient brand awareness, lack of managerial teams, and no cost advantages compared to international brands [5]. 8. **Market Positioning**: - Among Chinese hotel groups, H World is viewed as the leader in room rates and brand awareness, followed by Atour, Jinjiang, and BTG. The potential entry of OTAs into hotel operations could intensify competition in the low-to-medium-end segments [5]. Risks and Opportunities - **Downside Risks**: - Continued economic sluggishness, slower-than-expected growth in peak season tourist traffic, adverse weather conditions, and potential disasters such as earthquakes or epidemics [8][9][10][11]. - **Upside Risks**: - A better-than-expected macroeconomic environment and growth in domestic tourism could positively impact the hotel sector [8][9][10][11]. Company Ratings - **Top Picks**: Atour and Trip.com (TCOM) are highlighted as top investment choices with a **Buy** rating. - **Neutral Ratings**: H World and Shangri-La are rated as **Neutral** [2][24]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and projections regarding the Chinese hotel sector, highlighting both the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment potential and market position of BTG, highlighting its favorable long-term outlook based on recent performance and market trends [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - BTG has shown a significant increase in share value, reflecting strong operational performance and market demand [1]. - The company has maintained a beneficial long position, indicating confidence in its future growth prospects [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - The precious metals sector remains volatile, which necessitates careful position sizing for investors, particularly in small-cap stocks [2]. - The overall market sentiment towards precious metals is influenced by various economic factors, including inflation and currency fluctuations [2].

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Group 1 - Gold has reached a new record price above $3,800 an ounce, marking an increase of over 40% this year following a 26% rise in 2024 [1] - The earnings of gold miners are directly dependent on the price of gold, indicating potential growth opportunities in the mining sector as gold prices rise [1] Group 2 - Mountain Valley Value Investments focuses on identifying undervalued companies with strong growth potential across various sectors, emphasizing long-term value and disciplined research [1] - The investment philosophy of the company is rooted in rigorous analysis to uncover opportunities that can deliver strong returns [1]