Core Thesis - Deere & Company is positioned for potential recovery as agricultural conditions stabilize, entering FY2025 at a cyclical trough [1][4] Company Overview - Deere & Company manufactures and distributes various equipment globally, operating through two main divisions: Equipment Operations and Financial Services [1] - Equipment Operations includes Production & Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture & Turf, and Construction & Forestry [1] Industry Dynamics - Deere's results are cyclical, closely tracking farm income and crop prices, with recent declines in net sales expected from FY2023 through FY2025 due to normalized commodity prices [2] - The rate of sales contraction is slowing, indicating a potential bottom of the cycle [2] Competitive Positioning - Deere is significantly larger than key competitors like CNH Industrial and Kubota, with approximately double their scale in Equipment Operations [3] - In agriculture, Deere experienced a 14% sales decline in FY2025, consistent with peers, while competitors like CLAAS showed greater resilience [3] Market Performance - Deere's stock has risen approximately 75% since the end of 2020, outperforming most agricultural peers, reflecting market confidence in its structural advantages [4] - The current environment is seen as an attractive long-term entry point for investors as sales declines moderate and competitive scale remains strong [4] Previous Coverage - Previous bullish analyses highlighted Deere's margin resilience, consistent earnings beats, aggressive buybacks, and expanding ag-tech initiatives despite cyclical pressures, with a stock price appreciation of approximately 26.88% since May 2025 [5]

UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 FORM 10-K ☑ ANNUAL REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 OR ☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 For the transition period from to Commission File Number: 001-36085 CNH INDUSTRIAL N.V. (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) Netherlands 98-1125413 | | | Name of each exchange on which | ...

Group 1 - The company has been making similar statements for five years, but there is limited evidence of progress, leading to skepticism about its future direction [1] - The article expresses a critical viewpoint regarding the company's ability to deliver on its promises over an extended period [1] Group 2 - No specific financial data or performance metrics are provided in the content [2]

Core Insights - CNH has achieved a ranking in the top 1% of companies in S&P Global's 2026 Sustainability Yearbook, with a score of 83/100, evaluated among over 9,200 organizations across 62 industries [1][2][3] - This recognition follows CNH's inclusion in S&P Global's Dow Jones Sustainability World and North America Indices, where it secured a joint first place in the Machinery and Electrical Equipment Industry category [2][3] - The Chief Sustainability Officer of CNH emphasized that this recognition reflects the company's impactful sustainability strategy, particularly in agriculture, where their technologies contribute to healthier soils and biodiversity [3] Sustainability Performance - CNH received an A Climate score and an A- Water score from CDP, highlighting its commitment to environmental sustainability [4] - The company has progressed to the top 1% from being in the top 5% for two consecutive years, indicating significant improvement in sustainability performance [7] Company Overview - CNH Industrial is a global leader in equipment, technology, and services, focusing on innovation, sustainability, and productivity [5][6] - The company operates various brands, including Case IH and New Holland for agriculture, and CASE and New Holland Construction Equipment for construction, providing a comprehensive range of products and digital technologies [5] - With over 35,000 employees, CNH promotes a diverse and inclusive workplace aimed at empowering customers and fostering a better world [6]

Core Insights - CNH Industrial reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 19 cents, an increase from 15 cents in the prior-year quarter, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 11 cents [1] - Consolidated revenues rose 5.8% year over year to $5.16 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.02 billion [1] Segmental Performance - Agriculture segment net sales increased 5% year over year to $3.6 billion, driven by favorable price realization and positive foreign exchange impacts, beating the estimate of $3.41 billion [2] - Adjusted EBIT for the Agriculture segment was $233 million, down 5% year over year due to lower volumes and higher costs, but still above the estimate of $172.6 million; adjusted EBIT margin decreased to 6.5% from 7.2% [2] - Construction segment sales rose 19% year over year to $853 million, attributed to higher volume and favorable price realization in North America, surpassing the estimate of $810.3 million [3] - Adjusted EBIT for the Construction segment was $5 million, down 72% year over year due to increased production costs, with adjusted EBIT margin decreasing to 0.6% from 2.5% [3] - Financial Services segment revenues fell 6% to $700 million, missing the estimate of $770.4 million, while net income increased from $92 million to $109 million year over year [4] Financial Details - As of December 31, 2025, CNH Industrial had cash and cash equivalents of $2.58 billion, down from $3.19 billion a year earlier [5] - Total debt was $26.76 billion, a slight decrease from $26.88 billion as of December 31, 2024 [5] - Net cash provided by operating activities was $945 million, compared to $1.69 billion in the prior year [5] - Free cash outflow from industrial activities was $817 million, slightly improved from $848 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 [5] 2026 Guidance - For 2026, Agriculture sales are expected to decrease and remain flat at 5% year over year, with adjusted EBIT margin projected between 4.5-5.5% [6] - Construction segment sales are expected to remain flat year over year, with adjusted EBIT margin anticipated in the range of 1-2% [6] - Free cash flow from industrial activities is expected to be between $150-$350 million, with adjusted EPS projected between 35 cents and 45 cents, down from 55 cents in 2025 [7] Zacks Rank & Key Picks - CNH currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) [8] - Other better-ranked stocks in the industrial product space include Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Kennametal, and Proto Labs, each with a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [10]

Management attributes the Q4 revenue increase to an easy comparison against 2024's severe production cuts rather than a fundamental market recovery. The Agriculture segment realized $230 million in cost savings during 2025, keeping the company on track for its $550 million cumulative target by 2030. A strategic pivot is underway to reduce the number of first-level dealer owners by one-third to create a more robust, dual-branded distribution network. Quality initiatives delivered $150 million in savi ...

Core Viewpoint - CNH Industrial, one of the largest agricultural machinery manufacturers globally, indicates that the challenging situation for North American farms will persist due to low grain prices and trade uncertainties, with recovery postponed until next year [1] Group 1: Company Insights - CNH Industrial owns tractor brands such as Case and New Holland [1] - The company forecasts a potential global demand decline of 5% this year, reaching historically low levels [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The Trump administration has introduced a $12 billion aid package for farmers; however, competitors like AGCO have noted that this assistance has not yet translated into new sales [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter consolidated revenues were $5.2 billion, up 6% from Q4 of 2024, with adjusted net income at $246 million and adjusted EPS at $0.19, up from $0.15 in Q4 2024 [10][14] - For the full year 2025, consolidated revenues were down 9% year-over-year, while industrial sales decreased in double digits [11][14] - Industrial adjusted EBIT margin for 2025 was 4.3%, primarily driven by higher tariff costs and unfavorable geographic mix [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Agriculture segment sales in Q4 were about $3.6 billion, up 5% year-over-year, with EMEA up 33% and North America down 10% [10][15] - Construction sales increased by 19% year-over-year to $853 million, driven by better sales in North and South America [10][16] - Financial services segment net income in Q4 was $109 million, an 18% year-over-year increase [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America is expected to see a significant decrease in large equipment industry retail demand, while EMEA is forecasted to have flat demand with slight increases in tractors [28][30] - Global industry retail demand is projected to be around 80% of mid-cycle, down approximately 5% from 2025 levels [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company’s strategy focuses on five key pillars: expanding product leadership, advancing tech integration, driving commercial excellence, operational excellence, and quality as a mindset [19] - The company aims to achieve a 16%-17% EBIT margin in agriculture by 2030, despite tariff impacts [26] - A robust pipeline of new product launches is planned, including over 15 new tractor launches and 30 precision technology releases by the end of 2027 [19][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that commodity prices remain low, impacting farmers' ability to purchase equipment, and the trade environment is still uncertain [9][11] - The company expects the North American revenue and profit pool to grow significantly over the next five to ten years as demand for larger machines increases [11][30] - Management expressed cautious optimism about the European market, highlighting some recovery signs but acknowledging ongoing challenges [11][80] Other Important Information - The company has made significant progress in cost-saving initiatives, achieving $230 million in savings in 2025, on track to reach a cumulative target of $550 million by 2030 [8][25] - Sustainability remains a priority, with the company ranked number one in its industry on the S&P Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on inventory situation and setup for 2027 - Management indicated that dealer destocking was accomplished globally, with a shortfall of $150 million against a $1 billion target, landing at $800 million [43][44] Question: EBIT bridge for 2026 - Management provided a breakdown of expected margin impacts, including a reduction in volumes and geographic mix, with operational improvements expected to offset some tariff headwinds [48] Question: Ag profitability in Q1 - Management confirmed that Ag segment EBIT is expected to be around breakeven for Q1 [50] Question: Farmer sentiment in North America - Management noted that farmer sentiment is currently low due to flat income projections and ongoing commodity price challenges [71][72] Question: Product launch pipeline in Europe - Management highlighted excitement around new mid-range tractors and next-gen combines, with positive feedback from farmers [75][76]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter consolidated revenues were $5.2 billion, up 6% from Q4 of 2024, with adjusted net income at $246 million and adjusted EPS at $0.19, up from $0.15 in Q4 2024 [10][14] - For the full year 2025, consolidated revenues were down 9% year-over-year, while industrial sales decreased in double digits [11] - Industrial adjusted EBIT margin was 4.3% for 2025, primarily driven by higher tariff costs and unfavorable geographic mix [11][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Agriculture segment sales in Q4 were about $3.6 billion, up 5% year-over-year, with EMEA up 33% and North America down 10% [10][15] - Construction net sales in Q4 were up 19% year-over-year to $853 million, driven by better sales in North and South America [10][16] - Financial services segment net income in Q4 was $109 million, an 18% year-over-year increase [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America is expected to see the largest decrease in large equipment industry retail demand, while EMEA is forecasted to show slight growth [28][30] - Global industry retail demand is projected to be around 80% of mid-cycle, down approximately 5% from 2025 levels [29][30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company strategy focuses on five key pillars: expanding product leadership, advancing tech integration, driving commercial excellence, operational excellence, and quality as a mindset [19] - A robust pipeline of new product launches is planned, including over 15 new tractor launches and 30 precision technology releases by the end of 2027 [19][20] - The company aims to improve agriculture EBIT margin to 16%-17% by 2030, despite tariff impacts [26] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management noted that commodity prices remain low, affecting farmers' ability to purchase equipment, and the trade environment is still uncertain [9][11] - The company expects 2026 to represent the trough of the cycle, with a focus on improving underlying profitability [30][32] - Management expressed confidence in North and South American markets delivering growth in revenue and profit pools as trade flows stabilize [11][30] Other Important Information - The company has been recognized for its sustainability efforts, ranking number one in its industry on S&P Global's Corporate Sustainability Assessment [12] - The company repurchased $45 million worth of stock in Q4 and returned $432 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases for the full year [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on inventory situation and setup for 2027 - Management acknowledged a shortfall in inventory reduction targets, primarily due to Europe, and indicated that dealer destocking is largely accomplished [43][44] Question: EBIT bridge for 2026 - Management provided a breakdown of expected margin impacts, indicating a reduction in margin due to volumes and geographic mix, but improvements from pricing and operational efficiencies [48] Question: North America farmer sentiment and government initiatives - Management noted that farmer sentiment is currently low due to flat income projections and commodity prices, with ongoing discussions about potential government support [70][71] Question: Product launch pipeline and competitive environment in Europe - Management highlighted excitement around new mid-range tractors and combines, with positive feedback from farmers, while cautioning about the fragile market conditions in Europe [74][78]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter consolidated revenues were $5.2 billion, up 6% from Q4 2024, with adjusted net income at $246 million and adjusted EPS at $0.19, up from $0.15 in Q4 2024 [8][12] - For the full year 2025, consolidated revenues were down 9% year-over-year, while industrial sales decreased in double digits [9][12] - Industrial adjusted EBIT margin was 4.3% for 2025, primarily affected by higher tariff costs and unfavorable geographic mix [9][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Agriculture segment sales in Q4 were about $3.6 billion, up 5% year-over-year, with EMEA sales up 33% and North America down 10% [8][13] - Construction net sales in Q4 were up 19% year-over-year to $853 million, driven by better sales in North and South America [12][14] - Financial services segment net income increased 18% year-over-year to $109 million, driven by interest margin improvements [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America is expected to see a decrease in large equipment industry retail demand, while EMEA is forecasted to show slight growth in tractor sales [28][29] - Global industry retail demand is projected to be around 80% of mid-cycle, down approximately 5% from 2025 levels [28][29] - Commodity prices remain low, impacting farmers' purchasing power and sentiment [7][73] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on five strategic pillars: expanding product leadership, advancing tech integration, driving commercial excellence, operational excellence, and quality [18] - A robust pipeline of new product launches is planned, including over 15 new tractor launches and 30 precision technology releases by the end of 2027 [18][19] - The company aims to improve agriculture EBIT margin to 16%-17% by 2030, despite tariff impacts [26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management acknowledges ongoing challenges in the market, including low commodity prices and a dynamic trade environment [7][28] - There is cautious optimism for the second half of 2026, with expectations for improved margins and profits despite current headwinds [35][36] - The company is committed to maintaining a healthy balance sheet while returning cash to shareholders through dividends and stock repurchases [17] Other Important Information - The company has made significant progress in cost-saving initiatives, achieving $230 million in savings in 2025 [6][25] - Sustainability remains a priority, with the company ranked number one in its industry on S&P Global's Corporate Sustainability Assessment [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on inventory situation and setup for 2027 - Management noted a $150 million shortfall in inventory reduction, landing at $800 million instead of the $1 billion target, primarily due to European market conditions [43][44] Question: EBIT bridge for 2026 - Management provided insights on expected margin reductions due to volume and geographic mix, estimating a midpoint EBIT margin of around 5% for 2026 [48][49] Question: North America farmer sentiment and government initiatives - Management indicated that farmer sentiment is currently low, with flat income projections for 2026, and highlighted ongoing discussions regarding potential government support for the agricultural sector [73][74] Question: Product launch pipeline and competitive environment in Europe - Management expressed excitement about new product launches, particularly in mid-range tractors, and noted positive feedback from farmers [77][78]